19 December 2019
2019- n° 332In December 2019, the business climate has slightly improved in services Monthly survey of services - December 2019
According to business managers surveyed in December 2019, the business climate has improved a little in services. The business climate composite indicator has risen by one point after a stability for the previous two months. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average (100).
- Increased optimism of business managers on their activity and expected demand
- In road freight transport, the business climate has sharply improved
- In accommodation and food services, the business climate has slightly weakened
- The climate has strengthened in information-communication
- The climate is stable in real estate activities
- In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate remains favourable
- The climate has weakened a little in administrative and support services
- For further information
According to business managers surveyed in December 2019, the business climate has improved a little in services. The business climate composite indicator has risen by one point after a stability for the previous two months. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 111.3 |
| 2000-06 | 114.7 |
| 2000-07 | 113.1 |
| 2000-08 | 115.4 |
| 2000-09 | 116.9 |
| 2000-10 | 116.2 |
| 2000-11 | 115.0 |
| 2000-12 | 115.6 |
| 2001-01 | 114.7 |
| 2001-02 | 113.3 |
| 2001-03 | 113.6 |
| 2001-04 | 108.9 |
| 2001-05 | 106.0 |
| 2001-06 | 105.9 |
| 2001-07 | 103.4 |
| 2001-08 | 102.6 |
| 2001-09 | 101.1 |
| 2001-10 | 95.9 |
| 2001-11 | 95.2 |
| 2001-12 | 95.5 |
| 2002-01 | 96.6 |
| 2002-02 | 97.9 |
| 2002-03 | 102.1 |
| 2002-04 | 104.5 |
| 2002-05 | 105.4 |
| 2002-06 | 102.6 |
| 2002-07 | 100.8 |
| 2002-08 | 99.2 |
| 2002-09 | 97.1 |
| 2002-10 | 97.8 |
| 2002-11 | 99.5 |
| 2002-12 | 100.5 |
| 2003-01 | 96.8 |
| 2003-02 | 95.3 |
| 2003-03 | 90.0 |
| 2003-04 | 87.0 |
| 2003-05 | 91.5 |
| 2003-06 | 93.1 |
| 2003-07 | 96.6 |
| 2003-08 | 98.1 |
| 2003-09 | 99.1 |
| 2003-10 | 100.1 |
| 2003-11 | 101.6 |
| 2003-12 | 104.2 |
| 2004-01 | 106.6 |
| 2004-02 | 106.6 |
| 2004-03 | 106.3 |
| 2004-04 | 106.1 |
| 2004-05 | 106.7 |
| 2004-06 | 105.5 |
| 2004-07 | 106.8 |
| 2004-08 | 106.3 |
| 2004-09 | 105.5 |
| 2004-10 | 106.8 |
| 2004-11 | 106.3 |
| 2004-12 | 109.5 |
| 2005-01 | 106.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-03 | 108.8 |
| 2005-04 | 108.5 |
| 2005-05 | 106.4 |
| 2005-06 | 109.0 |
| 2005-07 | 108.3 |
| 2005-08 | 107.9 |
| 2005-09 | 107.5 |
| 2005-10 | 109.1 |
| 2005-11 | 106.8 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2006-01 | 109.3 |
| 2006-02 | 106.7 |
| 2006-03 | 108.1 |
| 2006-04 | 108.5 |
| 2006-05 | 111.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.9 |
| 2006-07 | 111.2 |
| 2006-08 | 111.3 |
| 2006-09 | 111.5 |
| 2006-10 | 111.8 |
| 2006-11 | 114.3 |
| 2006-12 | 112.5 |
| 2007-01 | 111.8 |
| 2007-02 | 113.3 |
| 2007-03 | 114.5 |
| 2007-04 | 114.2 |
| 2007-05 | 114.1 |
| 2007-06 | 113.7 |
| 2007-07 | 114.3 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-09 | 112.4 |
| 2007-10 | 111.0 |
| 2007-11 | 111.1 |
| 2007-12 | 109.9 |
| 2008-01 | 111.4 |
| 2008-02 | 109.4 |
| 2008-03 | 109.5 |
| 2008-04 | 107.7 |
| 2008-05 | 105.0 |
| 2008-06 | 101.5 |
| 2008-07 | 96.6 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-09 | 92.7 |
| 2008-10 | 83.1 |
| 2008-11 | 78.7 |
| 2008-12 | 75.1 |
| 2009-01 | 72.2 |
| 2009-02 | 70.9 |
| 2009-03 | 65.1 |
| 2009-04 | 65.1 |
| 2009-05 | 69.6 |
| 2009-06 | 74.8 |
| 2009-07 | 79.0 |
| 2009-08 | 82.0 |
| 2009-09 | 85.5 |
| 2009-10 | 89.0 |
| 2009-11 | 90.6 |
| 2009-12 | 91.2 |
| 2010-01 | 92.8 |
| 2010-02 | 93.1 |
| 2010-03 | 93.3 |
| 2010-04 | 96.8 |
| 2010-05 | 98.7 |
| 2010-06 | 97.7 |
| 2010-07 | 98.7 |
| 2010-08 | 100.4 |
| 2010-09 | 101.5 |
| 2010-10 | 102.9 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 107.3 |
| 2011-01 | 107.6 |
| 2011-02 | 110.0 |
| 2011-03 | 111.3 |
| 2011-04 | 109.8 |
| 2011-05 | 108.3 |
| 2011-06 | 107.8 |
| 2011-07 | 105.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.1 |
| 2011-10 | 96.8 |
| 2011-11 | 94.5 |
| 2011-12 | 94.1 |
| 2012-01 | 91.9 |
| 2012-02 | 91.2 |
| 2012-03 | 92.7 |
| 2012-04 | 94.9 |
| 2012-05 | 90.9 |
| 2012-06 | 88.6 |
| 2012-07 | 88.1 |
| 2012-08 | 85.8 |
| 2012-09 | 85.5 |
| 2012-10 | 84.2 |
| 2012-11 | 83.5 |
| 2012-12 | 85.3 |
| 2013-01 | 86.5 |
| 2013-02 | 85.1 |
| 2013-03 | 82.0 |
| 2013-04 | 81.0 |
| 2013-05 | 82.6 |
| 2013-06 | 84.1 |
| 2013-07 | 84.6 |
| 2013-08 | 86.7 |
| 2013-09 | 90.8 |
| 2013-10 | 90.3 |
| 2013-11 | 91.1 |
| 2013-12 | 89.5 |
| 2014-01 | 91.0 |
| 2014-02 | 90.8 |
| 2014-03 | 91.8 |
| 2014-04 | 92.1 |
| 2014-05 | 91.0 |
| 2014-06 | 90.9 |
| 2014-07 | 91.3 |
| 2014-08 | 90.2 |
| 2014-09 | 89.6 |
| 2014-10 | 89.9 |
| 2014-11 | 89.8 |
| 2014-12 | 89.9 |
| 2015-01 | 89.6 |
| 2015-02 | 90.0 |
| 2015-03 | 90.9 |
| 2015-04 | 92.7 |
| 2015-05 | 94.4 |
| 2015-06 | 96.0 |
| 2015-07 | 96.7 |
| 2015-08 | 98.0 |
| 2015-09 | 96.9 |
| 2015-10 | 99.1 |
| 2015-11 | 98.8 |
| 2015-12 | 96.4 |
| 2016-01 | 99.6 |
| 2016-02 | 99.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.1 |
| 2016-04 | 97.8 |
| 2016-05 | 100.5 |
| 2016-06 | 98.6 |
| 2016-07 | 100.0 |
| 2016-08 | 99.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.5 |
| 2016-10 | 100.4 |
| 2016-11 | 100.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.4 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-03 | 103.3 |
| 2017-04 | 103.1 |
| 2017-05 | 102.6 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-07 | 103.8 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 107.2 |
| 2017-11 | 107.9 |
| 2017-12 | 109.4 |
| 2018-01 | 108.1 |
| 2018-02 | 106.8 |
| 2018-03 | 107.1 |
| 2018-04 | 106.0 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.6 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-11 | 103.7 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 104.7 |
| 2019-09 | 105.9 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.4 |
| 2019-12 | 107.1 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
Increased optimism of business managers on their activity and expected demand
In December, the balance of opinion on expected activity has improved again, that on expected demand has increased too. Both are well above their long-term average. The balance on past activity has clearly bounced back and has returned above its average. In contrast, the general outlook of activity is considered slightly less favourable than in the previous month, even if the corresponding balance of opinion remains significantly above its average level.
The balances on past and expected selling prices have slightly recovered and remain above their average.
Concerning employment, the balance on past employment has edged up but remains below its long-term average. That on expected employment has declined but remains above its.
In December 2019, the turning-point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.
tableauTurning-point indicator
| Turning-point indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2010-01 | 0.96 |
| 2010-02 | -0.14 |
| 2010-03 | 0.44 |
| 2010-04 | 0.86 |
| 2010-05 | 0.99 |
| 2010-06 | 0.9 |
| 2010-07 | 0.77 |
| 2010-08 | 0.97 |
| 2010-09 | 0.97 |
| 2010-10 | 0.97 |
| 2010-11 | 0.96 |
| 2010-12 | 0.99 |
| 2011-01 | 0.91 |
| 2011-02 | 0.98 |
| 2011-03 | 1.0 |
| 2011-04 | 0.9 |
| 2011-05 | 0.51 |
| 2011-06 | 0.69 |
| 2011-07 | 0.16 |
| 2011-08 | -0.84 |
| 2011-09 | -0.98 |
| 2011-10 | -0.87 |
| 2011-11 | -0.81 |
| 2011-12 | -0.69 |
| 2012-01 | -0.69 |
| 2012-02 | -0.86 |
| 2012-03 | -0.59 |
| 2012-04 | -0.53 |
| 2012-05 | -0.94 |
| 2012-06 | -0.99 |
| 2012-07 | -0.88 |
| 2012-08 | -0.92 |
| 2012-09 | -0.78 |
| 2012-10 | -0.88 |
| 2012-11 | -0.83 |
| 2012-12 | -0.59 |
| 2013-01 | -0.37 |
| 2013-02 | -0.92 |
| 2013-03 | -0.95 |
| 2013-04 | -0.99 |
| 2013-05 | -0.88 |
| 2013-06 | -0.64 |
| 2013-07 | -0.58 |
| 2013-08 | -0.48 |
| 2013-09 | 0.32 |
| 2013-10 | -0.34 |
| 2013-11 | -0.03 |
| 2013-12 | -0.54 |
| 2014-01 | -0.36 |
| 2014-02 | -0.3 |
| 2014-03 | -0.24 |
| 2014-04 | -0.2 |
| 2014-05 | -0.89 |
| 2014-06 | -0.78 |
| 2014-07 | -0.69 |
| 2014-08 | -0.85 |
| 2014-09 | -0.7 |
| 2014-10 | -0.6 |
| 2014-11 | -0.95 |
| 2014-12 | -0.9 |
| 2015-01 | -0.99 |
| 2015-02 | -0.92 |
| 2015-03 | -0.78 |
| 2015-04 | -0.66 |
| 2015-05 | 0.52 |
| 2015-06 | 0.6 |
| 2015-07 | 0.7 |
| 2015-08 | 0.72 |
| 2015-09 | -0.47 |
| 2015-10 | 0.76 |
| 2015-11 | 0.72 |
| 2015-12 | -0.47 |
| 2016-01 | 0.48 |
| 2016-02 | 0.57 |
| 2016-03 | 0.37 |
| 2016-04 | 0.2 |
| 2016-05 | 0.77 |
| 2016-06 | -0.49 |
| 2016-07 | 0.14 |
| 2016-08 | -0.08 |
| 2016-09 | 0.38 |
| 2016-10 | 0.54 |
| 2016-11 | 0.27 |
| 2016-12 | 0.91 |
| 2017-01 | 0.73 |
| 2017-02 | 0.78 |
| 2017-03 | 0.7 |
| 2017-04 | 0.67 |
| 2017-05 | 0.15 |
| 2017-06 | 0.9 |
| 2017-07 | 0.78 |
| 2017-08 | 0.75 |
| 2017-09 | 0.97 |
| 2017-10 | 0.99 |
| 2017-11 | 0.99 |
| 2017-12 | 0.99 |
| 2018-01 | 0.84 |
| 2018-02 | 0.41 |
| 2018-03 | 0.49 |
| 2018-04 | 0.42 |
| 2018-05 | 0.48 |
| 2018-06 | 0.85 |
| 2018-07 | 0.75 |
| 2018-08 | 0.25 |
| 2018-09 | 0.4 |
| 2018-10 | -0.7 |
| 2018-11 | -0.49 |
| 2018-12 | -0.46 |
| 2019-01 | -0.22 |
| 2019-02 | -0.34 |
| 2019-03 | 0.75 |
| 2019-04 | 0.8 |
| 2019-05 | 0.98 |
| 2019-06 | 0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 0.83 |
| 2019-08 | 0.75 |
| 2019-09 | 0.7 |
| 2019-10 | 0.65 |
| 2019-11 | 0.61 |
| 2019-12 | 0.95 |
graphiqueTurning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between -0.3 and +0.3.
- Source: INSEE.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Sep. 2019 | Oct. 2019 | Nov. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 107 |
| General outlook | -7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Past activity | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Past employment | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Expected investments | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator is above its long-term average in all sub-sectors. It has sharply increased in road freight transport and more moderately in information-communication. At the opposite, it has slightly decreased in accommodation and food services, in professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support services. The climate is stable in real estate activities.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Sep. 2019 | Oct. 2019 | Nov. 2019 | Dec. 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 103 | 102 | 106 |
| Past activity | -5 | -3 | 0 | -2 | -4 |
| Expected activity | -6 | 7 | -2 | -5 | 5 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 0 | -9 | -6 | 1 |
| Past employment | -5 | -8 | -10 | -4 | -2 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| General outlook | -18 | -6 | -8 | -10 | -12 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 110 | 112 | 111 |
| Past activity | -6 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 13 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -5 | -1 | 0 | 3 |
| Past employment | -4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| Expected employment | -5 | 3 | -5 | 4 | 0 |
| General outlook | -13 | -8 | -6 | -3 | -8 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 104 |
| Past activity | 8 | 2 | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 16 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Past employment | 6 | -8 | -7 | -2 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| General outlook | 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 99 | 103 | 103 |
| Past activity | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Past employment | 3 | 3 | -3 | 10 | 6 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| General outlook | -3 | -3 | -3 | 0 | -3 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 111 | 113 | 112 | 111 |
| Past activity | -1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| Past employment | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| General outlook | -8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 104 | 104 | 103 |
| Past activity | 6 | 8 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| Past employment | 9 | 11 | -1 | -4 | -1 |
| Expected employment | 8 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 1 |
| General outlook | -3 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
In road freight transport, the business climate has sharply improved
In road freight transport, the business climate has gained four points. At 106, it stands well above its average. This improvement is mainly due to the sharp increase in the balances on expected activity, on expected demand and on expected employment. In contrast, the balances on past activity and on general outlook have fallen again.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has slightly weakened
In accommodation and food services, the climate has lost one point. However, at 111, it stands far above its average. In particular, the balances on general outlook and on expected employment have significantly shrunk. However, all balances remain above their average.
The climate has strengthened in information-communication
In information-communication, the business climate has gained two points. At 104, it stands above its average. All balances of opinion have increased except that on expected employment, which has sharply declined. The balances on past activity and on employment stand below their average, unlike other balances.
The climate is stable in real estate activities
In real estate activities, the business climate is stable. At 103, it stands above its average level. The increase in balances on past activity, on expected demand and on expected employment is offset by the decline in those on general outlook, on expected activity and on past employment. Only the balance on expected activity stands below its average.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate remains favourable
The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has lost one point but its level remains high (111). Since September, it has remained significantly above its average. The slight deterioration of the climate is mainly due to the decrease in the balances on general outlook, on expected demand and on expected activity.
The climate has weakened a little in administrative and support services
In administrative and support services, the climate has lost one point. At 103, it stands above its average. This slight dip is mainly due to the balances on expectations: the balances on expected employment, on expected demand and on expected activity have significantly decreased. In contrast, the balance on past activity has sharply recovered.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 January 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 January 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
