21 November 2019

2019- n° 303

In November 2019, the business climate in wholesale trade somewhat deteriorates, though it remains propitious Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - November 2019

According to the managers surveyed in November 2019, the business climate in wholesale trade has somewhat deteriorated since September, though it remains propitious. The composite indicator has lost one point and stands at 105, well above its long-term average (100). The September 2019 business climate indicator was updated upwards by one point as a result of the integration of late business answers.

In November 2019, slightly fewer wholesalers than in September have reported that their received deliveries over the past two months were above normal. The corresponding balance has kept decreasing mildly; it has been eroding since March. The balance on deliveries from abroad is steady, as well as those on past sales, be it altogether or solely abroad. These four balances on past activity remain above their long-term average.

In November, the balance of opinion related to total intentions of orders has diminished again: it is the balance most contributing to the slight decline of the wholesale trade climate indicator. Furthermore, the wholesalers' balance of opinion on the overall business outlook for the sector has receded a little. Nevertheless the balances regarding intentions of orders from abroad and regarding orders to be delivered abroad have improved. All these balances stand well above their long-term average.

The balance of opinion on past employment has recovered very slightly and moved just above its average. The one related to the expected workforce is stable, still greater than its average.

In November, the balances regarding selling prices, past and expected, have interrupted their decline started in November 2018 and have soared. But they still lie well below their long-term average.

As many wholesalers as in September consider their cash flow situation to be favourable. The related balance is above its long-term average.

The turning-point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.

In the agricultural wholesale sector, the business managers’ balance of opinion on total past sales has fallen yet again and deviated further from its average. Similarly, the balances related to intentions of orders over the next two months, to deliveries received from abroad and to stocks have shrunk. Nevertheless, the balance of opinion on sales abroad, now far above its mean, has further increased as it has been doing since November 2018.

In the food wholesale sector, the balance of opinion on past sales has picked up above its long-term average, after three consecutive two-month periods of decrease. However, the balance on foreign sales has decreased and reached its average. The balance on received deliveries has recovered while the one related to intentions of order has plummeted after being stable for three two-month periods.

In the wholesale of household goods, the balance on past sales has risen further and the one related to intentions of orders has somewhat bounced back: both lie well above their average. The balance on recent foreign sales has recovered a little. Conversely, the balances of opinion regarding deliveries received from abroad and regarding stocks have fallen back.

In this sector, the balances of opinion related to past total sales and to intentions of orders have withdrawn significantly, after their joint hike in September. The balance on foreign sales has slightly rebounded, while the one on deliveries received from abroad has gone up again. The balance of opinion on stocks has kept on dwindling and is now at its lowest since November 2014.

In the wholesale trade for other industrial capital goods, the balances on past sales, in total and abroad, and on intentions of orders have decreased markedly, although they still stand distinctly above their average. The balance related to stocks has receded again and the one on deliveries received from abroad has rebounded faintly.

Wholesalers of other specialised goods maintain their opinion as for the volume of their past total sales: the related balance is stable and above its average. The balances of opinion on deliveries from abroad and on intentions of orders have slightly declined. The balance on foreign sales has resumed its rise initiated in March.