21 November 2019
2019- n° 300In November 2019, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - November 2019
According to business managers surveyed in November 2019, the business climate in services is stable. At 106, it stands well above its long-term average (100).
In November, the platform on which companies answer business surveys has been unavailable for a few days. Therefore, the results for November might be revised more than usually for the December publication, which will take into account the answers received late.
- Sharp rebound in balance of opinion on expected activity
- In road freight transport, the business climate is stable
- In accommodation and food services, the business climate is very favourable
- The climate has improved a little in information-communication
- The climate has sharply improved in real estate activities
- In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has weakened a little
- The climate is stable in administrative and support services
- For further information
According to business managers surveyed in November 2019, the business climate in services is stable. At 106, it stands well above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 111.3 |
| 2000-06 | 114.7 |
| 2000-07 | 113.1 |
| 2000-08 | 115.4 |
| 2000-09 | 116.9 |
| 2000-10 | 116.2 |
| 2000-11 | 115.1 |
| 2000-12 | 115.6 |
| 2001-01 | 114.7 |
| 2001-02 | 113.4 |
| 2001-03 | 113.6 |
| 2001-04 | 109.0 |
| 2001-05 | 106.1 |
| 2001-06 | 105.9 |
| 2001-07 | 103.4 |
| 2001-08 | 102.6 |
| 2001-09 | 101.2 |
| 2001-10 | 95.9 |
| 2001-11 | 95.2 |
| 2001-12 | 95.6 |
| 2002-01 | 96.6 |
| 2002-02 | 97.9 |
| 2002-03 | 102.1 |
| 2002-04 | 104.5 |
| 2002-05 | 105.4 |
| 2002-06 | 102.6 |
| 2002-07 | 100.8 |
| 2002-08 | 99.2 |
| 2002-09 | 97.1 |
| 2002-10 | 97.9 |
| 2002-11 | 99.5 |
| 2002-12 | 100.5 |
| 2003-01 | 96.8 |
| 2003-02 | 95.3 |
| 2003-03 | 90.0 |
| 2003-04 | 87.0 |
| 2003-05 | 91.5 |
| 2003-06 | 93.1 |
| 2003-07 | 96.6 |
| 2003-08 | 98.1 |
| 2003-09 | 99.2 |
| 2003-10 | 100.1 |
| 2003-11 | 101.6 |
| 2003-12 | 104.2 |
| 2004-01 | 106.6 |
| 2004-02 | 106.6 |
| 2004-03 | 106.3 |
| 2004-04 | 106.1 |
| 2004-05 | 106.8 |
| 2004-06 | 105.5 |
| 2004-07 | 106.8 |
| 2004-08 | 106.3 |
| 2004-09 | 105.5 |
| 2004-10 | 106.9 |
| 2004-11 | 106.3 |
| 2004-12 | 109.5 |
| 2005-01 | 106.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-03 | 108.8 |
| 2005-04 | 108.5 |
| 2005-05 | 106.4 |
| 2005-06 | 109.0 |
| 2005-07 | 108.3 |
| 2005-08 | 107.9 |
| 2005-09 | 107.5 |
| 2005-10 | 109.1 |
| 2005-11 | 106.9 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2006-01 | 109.3 |
| 2006-02 | 106.7 |
| 2006-03 | 108.2 |
| 2006-04 | 108.5 |
| 2006-05 | 111.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.9 |
| 2006-07 | 111.2 |
| 2006-08 | 111.3 |
| 2006-09 | 111.5 |
| 2006-10 | 111.8 |
| 2006-11 | 114.3 |
| 2006-12 | 112.5 |
| 2007-01 | 111.8 |
| 2007-02 | 113.3 |
| 2007-03 | 114.5 |
| 2007-04 | 114.2 |
| 2007-05 | 114.1 |
| 2007-06 | 113.7 |
| 2007-07 | 114.3 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-09 | 112.5 |
| 2007-10 | 111.0 |
| 2007-11 | 111.1 |
| 2007-12 | 109.9 |
| 2008-01 | 111.4 |
| 2008-02 | 109.4 |
| 2008-03 | 109.5 |
| 2008-04 | 107.8 |
| 2008-05 | 105.0 |
| 2008-06 | 101.5 |
| 2008-07 | 96.6 |
| 2008-08 | 95.0 |
| 2008-09 | 92.7 |
| 2008-10 | 83.1 |
| 2008-11 | 78.7 |
| 2008-12 | 75.1 |
| 2009-01 | 72.2 |
| 2009-02 | 70.9 |
| 2009-03 | 65.1 |
| 2009-04 | 65.2 |
| 2009-05 | 69.7 |
| 2009-06 | 74.9 |
| 2009-07 | 79.1 |
| 2009-08 | 82.0 |
| 2009-09 | 85.6 |
| 2009-10 | 89.1 |
| 2009-11 | 90.6 |
| 2009-12 | 91.2 |
| 2010-01 | 92.9 |
| 2010-02 | 93.1 |
| 2010-03 | 93.3 |
| 2010-04 | 96.9 |
| 2010-05 | 98.8 |
| 2010-06 | 97.8 |
| 2010-07 | 98.7 |
| 2010-08 | 100.4 |
| 2010-09 | 101.5 |
| 2010-10 | 102.9 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 107.3 |
| 2011-01 | 107.6 |
| 2011-02 | 110.0 |
| 2011-03 | 111.3 |
| 2011-04 | 109.9 |
| 2011-05 | 108.3 |
| 2011-06 | 107.8 |
| 2011-07 | 105.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.1 |
| 2011-10 | 96.9 |
| 2011-11 | 94.5 |
| 2011-12 | 94.1 |
| 2012-01 | 92.0 |
| 2012-02 | 91.3 |
| 2012-03 | 92.8 |
| 2012-04 | 95.0 |
| 2012-05 | 90.9 |
| 2012-06 | 88.7 |
| 2012-07 | 88.1 |
| 2012-08 | 85.9 |
| 2012-09 | 85.5 |
| 2012-10 | 84.3 |
| 2012-11 | 83.6 |
| 2012-12 | 85.4 |
| 2013-01 | 86.6 |
| 2013-02 | 85.2 |
| 2013-03 | 82.0 |
| 2013-04 | 81.0 |
| 2013-05 | 82.7 |
| 2013-06 | 84.1 |
| 2013-07 | 84.6 |
| 2013-08 | 86.8 |
| 2013-09 | 90.9 |
| 2013-10 | 90.3 |
| 2013-11 | 91.1 |
| 2013-12 | 89.5 |
| 2014-01 | 91.0 |
| 2014-02 | 90.8 |
| 2014-03 | 91.8 |
| 2014-04 | 92.2 |
| 2014-05 | 91.0 |
| 2014-06 | 91.0 |
| 2014-07 | 91.3 |
| 2014-08 | 90.2 |
| 2014-09 | 89.6 |
| 2014-10 | 89.9 |
| 2014-11 | 89.8 |
| 2014-12 | 89.9 |
| 2015-01 | 89.7 |
| 2015-02 | 90.0 |
| 2015-03 | 90.9 |
| 2015-04 | 92.7 |
| 2015-05 | 94.4 |
| 2015-06 | 96.0 |
| 2015-07 | 96.8 |
| 2015-08 | 98.0 |
| 2015-09 | 96.9 |
| 2015-10 | 99.2 |
| 2015-11 | 98.8 |
| 2015-12 | 96.4 |
| 2016-01 | 99.6 |
| 2016-02 | 99.5 |
| 2016-03 | 99.1 |
| 2016-04 | 97.8 |
| 2016-05 | 100.5 |
| 2016-06 | 98.6 |
| 2016-07 | 100.0 |
| 2016-08 | 99.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.5 |
| 2016-10 | 100.4 |
| 2016-11 | 100.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-03 | 103.3 |
| 2017-04 | 103.1 |
| 2017-05 | 102.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-07 | 103.9 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 107.2 |
| 2017-11 | 107.9 |
| 2017-12 | 109.4 |
| 2018-01 | 108.2 |
| 2018-02 | 106.8 |
| 2018-03 | 107.1 |
| 2018-04 | 106.1 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 105.0 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.6 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-11 | 103.7 |
| 2018-12 | 101.9 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 106.1 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-07 | 105.2 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-09 | 105.9 |
| 2019-10 | 105.9 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
Sharp rebound in balance of opinion on expected activity
The balance of opinion on expected activity has sharplybounced back and stands well above its average. In contrast, the balance on past activity has continued to erode and moved below its. The general outlook for activity in the sector is deemed a little less favourable than in the previous month but the corresponding balance remains clearly above its average. The balance of opinion on expected demand, stable, remains above its average too.
The balances on past and expected selling prices have fallen back this month but stand above their average level.
Concerning employment, the balance on past employment has surged, moving up to its long-term average. That on expected employment has slightly decreased but stands above its; nevertheless, this balance is stable in services except temporary work agencies.
The balance on past investment has weakened, down to its average, whereas that on expected investment has increased again and stands well above its.
In November 2019, the turning point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.
tableauTurning-point indicator
| Turning-point indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2010-01 | 0.96 |
| 2010-02 | -0.14 |
| 2010-03 | 0.44 |
| 2010-04 | 0.86 |
| 2010-05 | 0.99 |
| 2010-06 | 0.9 |
| 2010-07 | 0.77 |
| 2010-08 | 0.97 |
| 2010-09 | 0.97 |
| 2010-10 | 0.97 |
| 2010-11 | 0.96 |
| 2010-12 | 0.99 |
| 2011-01 | 0.91 |
| 2011-02 | 0.98 |
| 2011-03 | 1.0 |
| 2011-04 | 0.9 |
| 2011-05 | 0.51 |
| 2011-06 | 0.69 |
| 2011-07 | 0.16 |
| 2011-08 | -0.84 |
| 2011-09 | -0.98 |
| 2011-10 | -0.87 |
| 2011-11 | -0.81 |
| 2011-12 | -0.69 |
| 2012-01 | -0.69 |
| 2012-02 | -0.86 |
| 2012-03 | -0.59 |
| 2012-04 | -0.53 |
| 2012-05 | -0.94 |
| 2012-06 | -0.99 |
| 2012-07 | -0.88 |
| 2012-08 | -0.92 |
| 2012-09 | -0.77 |
| 2012-10 | -0.87 |
| 2012-11 | -0.83 |
| 2012-12 | -0.59 |
| 2013-01 | -0.36 |
| 2013-02 | -0.92 |
| 2013-03 | -0.95 |
| 2013-04 | -0.99 |
| 2013-05 | -0.88 |
| 2013-06 | -0.64 |
| 2013-07 | -0.58 |
| 2013-08 | -0.48 |
| 2013-09 | 0.32 |
| 2013-10 | -0.34 |
| 2013-11 | -0.03 |
| 2013-12 | -0.54 |
| 2014-01 | -0.36 |
| 2014-02 | -0.3 |
| 2014-03 | -0.24 |
| 2014-04 | -0.2 |
| 2014-05 | -0.89 |
| 2014-06 | -0.78 |
| 2014-07 | -0.69 |
| 2014-08 | -0.85 |
| 2014-09 | -0.7 |
| 2014-10 | -0.6 |
| 2014-11 | -0.95 |
| 2014-12 | -0.9 |
| 2015-01 | -0.99 |
| 2015-02 | -0.92 |
| 2015-03 | -0.78 |
| 2015-04 | -0.66 |
| 2015-05 | 0.52 |
| 2015-06 | 0.6 |
| 2015-07 | 0.7 |
| 2015-08 | 0.72 |
| 2015-09 | -0.47 |
| 2015-10 | 0.76 |
| 2015-11 | 0.72 |
| 2015-12 | -0.47 |
| 2016-01 | 0.48 |
| 2016-02 | 0.57 |
| 2016-03 | 0.37 |
| 2016-04 | 0.2 |
| 2016-05 | 0.77 |
| 2016-06 | -0.49 |
| 2016-07 | 0.14 |
| 2016-08 | -0.08 |
| 2016-09 | 0.38 |
| 2016-10 | 0.54 |
| 2016-11 | 0.27 |
| 2016-12 | 0.91 |
| 2017-01 | 0.73 |
| 2017-02 | 0.78 |
| 2017-03 | 0.7 |
| 2017-04 | 0.67 |
| 2017-05 | 0.15 |
| 2017-06 | 0.9 |
| 2017-07 | 0.78 |
| 2017-08 | 0.75 |
| 2017-09 | 0.97 |
| 2017-10 | 0.99 |
| 2017-11 | 0.99 |
| 2017-12 | 0.99 |
| 2018-01 | 0.84 |
| 2018-02 | 0.41 |
| 2018-03 | 0.49 |
| 2018-04 | 0.42 |
| 2018-05 | 0.48 |
| 2018-06 | 0.85 |
| 2018-07 | 0.75 |
| 2018-08 | 0.25 |
| 2018-09 | 0.4 |
| 2018-10 | -0.7 |
| 2018-11 | -0.49 |
| 2018-12 | -0.46 |
| 2019-01 | -0.22 |
| 2019-02 | -0.34 |
| 2019-03 | 0.75 |
| 2019-04 | 0.8 |
| 2019-05 | 0.98 |
| 2019-06 | 0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 0.83 |
| 2019-08 | 0.75 |
| 2019-09 | 0.7 |
| 2019-10 | 0.65 |
| 2019-11 | 0.71 |
graphiqueTurning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between -0.3 and +0.3.
- Source: INSEE.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Aug. 2019 | Sep. 2019 | Oct. 2019 | Nov. 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| General outlook | -7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Past activity | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 0 | -2 | 2 | -1 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -2 | -3 | 1 | 0 |
| Past employment | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Expected investments | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator is above its long-term average in all sub-sectors. It is stable in road freight transport and in administrative and support services. It has slightly increased in accommodation and food services, in information-communication and more significantly in real estate activities where it had remained inferior or equal to its average since October 2017. It has slightly weakened in professional, scientific and technical activities where it remains however very superior to its average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Aug. 2019 | Sep. 2019 | Oct. 2019 | Nov. 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 106 | 103 | 103 |
| Past activity | -5 | -3 | -3 | 0 | -3 |
| Expected activity | -6 | 3 | 7 | -2 | -3 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -2 | 0 | -9 | -5 |
| Past employment | -5 | -7 | -8 | -10 | -6 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| General outlook | -19 | -9 | -6 | -8 | -10 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 106 | 110 | 111 |
| Past activity | -7 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -15 | -4 | 4 | 2 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -8 | -5 | -1 | -2 |
| Past employment | -4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Expected employment | -5 | 1 | 3 | -5 | -2 |
| General outlook | -13 | -9 | -8 | -6 | -2 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 102 | 102 | 103 |
| Past activity | 8 | 5 | 2 | -3 | -3 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 11 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Past employment | 6 | 3 | -8 | -7 | -4 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| General outlook | 0 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 99 | 100 | 99 | 102 |
| Past activity | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Past employment | 3 | -4 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| General outlook | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -2 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 111 | 113 | 112 |
| Past activity | -1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Past employment | 1 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| General outlook | -8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 105 | 104 | 104 |
| Past activity | 6 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Past employment | 9 | 11 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| Expected employment | 8 | -1 | 2 | 11 | 8 |
| General outlook | -3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
In road freight transport, the business climate is stable
In road freight transport, the business climate is stable at 103, above its average. The decline in balances on general outlook and on past and expected activity is offset by the improvement in these on past and expected employment and on expected demand. Only the balance on past employment stands below its average.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate is very favourable
In accommodation and food services, the climate has gained one point. At 111, it stands significantly above its average. All balances of opinion are above their average level. The balances on past activity, on general outlook and on expected employment have increased whereas those on expected demand and on past employment have slighlty weakened.
The climate has improved a little in information-communication
In information-communication, the business climate has gained one point. At 103, it stands above its average. The balances on expected activity and on past employment have increased whereas that on general outlook has declined. The balances on past employment, on past activity and on expected demand remain deteriorated; the others are above their average.
The climate has sharply improved in real estate activities
In real estate activities, the business climate has gained three points. At 102, it has reached its highest level since October 2017. The climate improvement is mainly due to the sharp rebound in the balances on past employment and to a lesser extent, to the increase in the balances on expected activity, on general outlook and on expected demand.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has weakened a little
The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has lost one point but stands far above its average for three months (112 in November). This slight deterioration is mainly due to the decline in the balances on past activity, on past employment and on general outlook.
The climate is stable in administrative and support services
In administrative and support services, the climate is stable at 104, above its average. The improvement in several balances, mainly on past employment, but also on expected demand and on past activity is offset by the decline in the balances on expected activity, on expected employment and on general outlook.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 19 December 2019 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 19 December 2019 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
