24 September 2019

2019- n° 249

In September 2019, the business climate has hardly worsened in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - September 2019

According to the managers surveyed in September 2019, the business climate in wholesale trade has hardly worsened since July and remains at a high level. The composite indicator has lost one point and stands at 105, well above its long-term average (100). The July 2019 business climate indicator was updated upwards by one point as a result of the integration of late business answers.

In September 2019, somewhat fewer wholesalers than in July have reported that their received deliveries over the past two months were above normal. The corresponding balance has kept decreasing slightly. However, the balance on deliveries received from abroad has increased a little. The balance on past sales is steady but the one on foreign sales has significantly decreased. These four balances on past activity remain above their long-term average.

In September, wholesalers' balance of opinion on the sector's overall business prospects has picked up. So has the balance related to intentions of orders from abroad. Nevertheless wholesalers are a bit less optimistic than in July regarding their overall order intentions and regarding orders to be delivered abroad: corresponding balances have slightly deteriorated. All these balances stand well above their long-term average.

The balance of opinion on past employment has faltered slightly again to reach its average, while the one regarding expected employment has also declined but still stands above its average.

In September, the balances regarding past and expected selling prices have further declined as they have been doing since November 2018. They now lie far below their long-term average.

As many wholesalers as in July consider their cash flow situation to be favourable. The related balance is above its long-term average.

The turning-point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation. Its July value has been reassessed from 0.1 up to 0.7.

In the agricultural wholesale trade sector, business leaders’ balances of opinion on both total and foreign past sales have plummeted below their long-term average. Their balance of opinion on received deliveries has increased up to its average. The balance on their orders intentions for the next two months has edged down, yet remains fairly above average.

In the food wholesale sector, the balance of opinion on past sales has decreased for the third consecutive two-month span and has fallen below its long-term average. The one on foreign sales has slipped back yet stays above average. The balance on received deliveries has decreased again and now lies below its average but the one on ordering intentions remains stable at a high level.

In the wholesale of household goods, the balance on past sales is stable, a bit under its average. The balances on recent foreign sales and on ordering intentions have fallen back but stay above average. However, the balance regarding deliveries received from abroad has bounced back markedly. Finally the balance on inventories has gone up sharply above its average after a drop at the beginning of this year.

In the wholesale trade for this type of capital goods, business leaders have signalled an upturn after July’s slump. The balance on past sales has rebounded above its average, as well as the balances on received deliveries, foreign or not. The balance on ordering intentions has bounced back above the level of the beginning of this year and its long-term average. The one on current stocks, that was in July at its highest since 1988, has tumbled below its average and at its lowest since November 2017.

In wholesale for other industrial capital goods, the balance on past sales has recovered. Conversely, the balances on deliveries from abroad and on ordering intentions have shrunk. These balances stand distinctly above their average.

In this sector the opinion balances on sales, altogether or solely abroad, have fallen back in September 2019 after two bi-monthly rises. The balance on ordering intentions has decreased again. These balances remain clearly above their long-term average, except the ones related to foreign sales and stocks.