Informations rapides
24 September 2019
2019- n° 246
In September 2019, the business climate has improved a little in services Monthly survey of services - September 2019

According to business managers surveyed in September 2019, the business climate in services has slightly increased. The business climate composite indicator has gained one point. At 106, it stands well above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 246
Paru le :Paru le24/09/2019
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025

According to business managers surveyed in September 2019, the business climate in services has slightly increased. The business climate composite indicator has gained one point. At 106, it stands well above its long-term average (100).

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
1998-01 104.4
1998-02 105.6
1998-03 106.8
1998-04 108.0
1998-05 107.7
1998-06 107.3
1998-07 106.9
1998-08 106.0
1998-09 105.2
1998-10 104.3
1998-11 102.5
1998-12 100.6
1999-01 98.7
1999-02 99.6
1999-03 100.5
1999-04 101.4
1999-05 102.9
1999-06 104.4
1999-07 106.0
1999-08 108.7
1999-09 111.5
1999-10 114.2
1999-11 112.7
1999-12 111.2
2000-01 109.6
2000-02 109.0
2000-03 108.5
2000-04 107.9
2000-05 111.3
2000-06 114.7
2000-07 113.1
2000-08 115.4
2000-09 116.9
2000-10 116.2
2000-11 115.1
2000-12 115.7
2001-01 114.7
2001-02 113.4
2001-03 113.7
2001-04 109.0
2001-05 106.1
2001-06 105.9
2001-07 103.4
2001-08 102.7
2001-09 101.2
2001-10 96.0
2001-11 95.3
2001-12 95.6
2002-01 96.7
2002-02 98.0
2002-03 102.2
2002-04 104.5
2002-05 105.5
2002-06 102.6
2002-07 100.8
2002-08 99.3
2002-09 97.2
2002-10 97.9
2002-11 99.5
2002-12 100.6
2003-01 96.9
2003-02 95.4
2003-03 90.1
2003-04 87.1
2003-05 91.6
2003-06 93.2
2003-07 96.7
2003-08 98.2
2003-09 99.2
2003-10 100.2
2003-11 101.7
2003-12 104.3
2004-01 106.6
2004-02 106.6
2004-03 106.4
2004-04 106.1
2004-05 106.8
2004-06 105.5
2004-07 106.9
2004-08 106.3
2004-09 105.5
2004-10 106.9
2004-11 106.3
2004-12 109.5
2005-01 106.9
2005-02 106.6
2005-03 108.9
2005-04 108.6
2005-05 106.4
2005-06 109.0
2005-07 108.3
2005-08 107.9
2005-09 107.5
2005-10 109.1
2005-11 106.9
2005-12 107.2
2006-01 109.4
2006-02 106.7
2006-03 108.2
2006-04 108.5
2006-05 111.4
2006-06 110.0
2006-07 111.2
2006-08 111.3
2006-09 111.6
2006-10 111.8
2006-11 114.3
2006-12 112.5
2007-01 111.8
2007-02 113.3
2007-03 114.5
2007-04 114.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.7
2007-07 114.3
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.5
2007-10 111.0
2007-11 111.2
2007-12 109.9
2008-01 111.4
2008-02 109.4
2008-03 109.5
2008-04 107.8
2008-05 105.0
2008-06 101.5
2008-07 96.7
2008-08 95.0
2008-09 92.8
2008-10 83.2
2008-11 78.8
2008-12 75.3
2009-01 72.4
2009-02 71.0
2009-03 65.3
2009-04 65.4
2009-05 69.8
2009-06 75.0
2009-07 79.2
2009-08 82.1
2009-09 85.7
2009-10 89.2
2009-11 90.7
2009-12 91.3
2010-01 92.9
2010-02 93.2
2010-03 93.4
2010-04 96.9
2010-05 98.8
2010-06 97.8
2010-07 98.8
2010-08 100.5
2010-09 101.5
2010-10 103.0
2010-11 105.1
2010-12 107.3
2011-01 107.6
2011-02 110.1
2011-03 111.4
2011-04 109.9
2011-05 108.3
2011-06 107.8
2011-07 105.6
2011-08 100.6
2011-09 98.2
2011-10 96.9
2011-11 94.6
2011-12 94.2
2012-01 92.1
2012-02 91.4
2012-03 92.8
2012-04 95.0
2012-05 91.0
2012-06 88.8
2012-07 88.2
2012-08 86.0
2012-09 85.6
2012-10 84.4
2012-11 83.7
2012-12 85.5
2013-01 86.7
2013-02 85.3
2013-03 82.1
2013-04 81.1
2013-05 82.8
2013-06 84.2
2013-07 84.7
2013-08 86.9
2013-09 90.9
2013-10 90.4
2013-11 91.2
2013-12 89.6
2014-01 91.1
2014-02 90.9
2014-03 91.9
2014-04 92.3
2014-05 91.1
2014-06 91.1
2014-07 91.4
2014-08 90.3
2014-09 89.7
2014-10 90.0
2014-11 89.9
2014-12 90.0
2015-01 89.7
2015-02 90.1
2015-03 91.0
2015-04 92.8
2015-05 94.5
2015-06 96.1
2015-07 96.8
2015-08 98.1
2015-09 96.9
2015-10 99.2
2015-11 98.9
2015-12 96.5
2016-01 99.7
2016-02 99.5
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 97.8
2016-05 100.5
2016-06 98.7
2016-07 100.0
2016-08 99.7
2016-09 100.5
2016-10 100.5
2016-11 100.6
2016-12 103.7
2017-01 101.5
2017-02 102.7
2017-03 103.3
2017-04 103.2
2017-05 102.7
2017-06 103.5
2017-07 103.9
2017-08 106.2
2017-09 107.0
2017-10 107.2
2017-11 107.9
2017-12 109.5
2018-01 108.2
2018-02 106.8
2018-03 107.1
2018-04 106.1
2018-05 104.4
2018-06 105.0
2018-07 104.5
2018-08 103.7
2018-09 104.6
2018-10 103.2
2018-11 103.7
2018-12 101.9
2019-01 103.5
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 104.7
2019-04 105.6
2019-05 106.1
2019-06 106.5
2019-07 105.2
2019-08 104.8
2019-09 105.5

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business managers optimistic in their prospects

The balances of opinion on the general outlook of business managers on their sector, on expected activity and on expected demand have increased a little and stand above their long-term average. That on past activity has slightly fallen back but remains above its average.

The balance on past employment has fallen back, particularly due to services except temporary work agencies. It has fallen back to its long-term average level, as in July. That on expected employment has continued to grow slightly and stands above its average level.

The balances on past and expected investments are both stable, slightly above their average.

In September 2019, the turning point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.96
2010-02 -0.14
2010-03 0.44
2010-04 0.86
2010-05 0.99
2010-06 0.9
2010-07 0.77
2010-08 0.97
2010-09 0.97
2010-10 0.97
2010-11 0.96
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.91
2011-02 0.98
2011-03 1.0
2011-04 0.9
2011-05 0.51
2011-06 0.69
2011-07 0.16
2011-08 -0.84
2011-09 -0.98
2011-10 -0.87
2011-11 -0.81
2011-12 -0.69
2012-01 -0.69
2012-02 -0.86
2012-03 -0.59
2012-04 -0.53
2012-05 -0.94
2012-06 -0.99
2012-07 -0.88
2012-08 -0.92
2012-09 -0.77
2012-10 -0.87
2012-11 -0.83
2012-12 -0.59
2013-01 -0.36
2013-02 -0.92
2013-03 -0.95
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 -0.88
2013-06 -0.64
2013-07 -0.58
2013-08 -0.48
2013-09 0.32
2013-10 -0.34
2013-11 -0.03
2013-12 -0.54
2014-01 -0.36
2014-02 -0.3
2014-03 -0.24
2014-04 -0.2
2014-05 -0.89
2014-06 -0.78
2014-07 -0.69
2014-08 -0.85
2014-09 -0.7
2014-10 -0.6
2014-11 -0.95
2014-12 -0.9
2015-01 -0.99
2015-02 -0.92
2015-03 -0.78
2015-04 -0.66
2015-05 0.52
2015-06 0.6
2015-07 0.7
2015-08 0.72
2015-09 -0.47
2015-10 0.76
2015-11 0.72
2015-12 -0.47
2016-01 0.48
2016-02 0.57
2016-03 0.37
2016-04 0.2
2016-05 0.77
2016-06 -0.49
2016-07 0.14
2016-08 -0.08
2016-09 0.38
2016-10 0.54
2016-11 0.27
2016-12 0.91
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.78
2017-03 0.7
2017-04 0.67
2017-05 0.15
2017-06 0.9
2017-07 0.78
2017-08 0.75
2017-09 0.97
2017-10 0.99
2017-11 0.99
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.84
2018-02 0.41
2018-03 0.49
2018-04 0.42
2018-05 0.48
2018-06 0.85
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.25
2018-09 0.4
2018-10 -0.7
2018-11 -0.49
2018-12 -0.46
2019-01 -0.22
2019-02 -0.34
2019-03 0.75
2019-04 0.8
2019-05 0.98
2019-06 0.9
2019-07 0.83
2019-08 0.75
2019-09 0.7

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between -0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* June 2019 July 2019 Aug. 2019 Sep. 2019
Composite indicator 100 107 105 105 106
General outlook -7 2 0 1 2
Past activity 2 8 8 5 4
Expected activity 2 7 4 4 6
Expected demand 0 4 4 3 4
Past selling prices -4 0 1 0 -2
Expected selling prices -3 1 2 -2 -2
Past employment 3 5 3 6 3
except temporary work agencies 1 0 0 4 -1
Expected employment 3 1 4 5 6
except temporary work agencies 0 6 5 7 7
Investments
Past investments 2 10 5 4 4
Expected investments 2 4 3 3 3
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

In all sub-sectors, the business climate indicator is above its long-term average. The climate has clearly deteriorated in information-communication while it has improved in all other sub-sectors. In particular, it has sharply improved in professional, scientific end technical activities.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* June 2019 July 2019 Aug. 2019 Sep. 2019
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 109 108 105 106
Past activity -5 6 2 -3 -1
Expected activity -6 8 6 3 8
Expected demand -9 3 8 -2 -1
Past employment -5 3 -2 -7 -8
Expected employment -7 6 3 3 3
General outlook -19 -2 -6 -9 -7
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 114 106 103 104
Past activity -7 0 3 11 7
Expected activity -7 4 -4 -15 -10
Expected demand -9 6 -9 -8 -5
Past employment -4 -1 2 2 2
Expected employment -5 3 5 1 3
General outlook -13 2 -4 -9 -9
Information and communication (26%)
Composite indicator 100 107 104 105 102
Past activity 8 17 8 5 1
Expected activity 9 21 13 16 12
Expected demand 10 18 15 15 4
Past employment 6 0 0 3 -8
Expected employment 11 10 10 11 11
General outlook 0 12 9 10 8
Real estate activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 98 97 99 101
Past activity 7 6 8 4 6
Expected activity 7 10 5 8 8
Expected demand 2 4 3 3 5
Past employment 3 3 -1 -4 4
Expected employment 3 1 6 10 5
General outlook -3 -8 -6 -3 -4
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 106 108 107 111
Past activity -1 7 7 4 9
Expected activity -2 3 3 2 7
Expected demand -5 -1 5 2 4
Past employment 1 0 2 7 2
Expected employment 1 11 11 12 14
General outlook -8 -2 -1 0 6
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 97 101 102 104
Past activity 6 7 10 7 6
Expected activity 5 -1 3 4 7
Expected demand 3 -6 1 3 6
Past employment 9 13 6 11 8
Expected employment 8 -13 -5 -1 3
General outlook -3 5 5 5 6
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

In road freight transport, the business climate has slightly bounced back

In road transport, the climate indicator has recovered a little after a sharp decline in August. It has gained one point and stands at 106, well above its average level. Only the balance on past employment has slightly decreased and stands below its average. That on expected activity has sharply bounced back and stands clearly above its average.

In accommodation and food services, the business climate has improved a little

In accommodation and food services, the climate has gained one point. At 104, it stands above its average. The balances on expected activity, on expected demand and on expected employment have significantly recovered. In contrast, the balance on past activity has fallen back. All balances of opinion are above its average, except that on expected activity.

The climate has deteriorated significantly in information-communication

In information-communication, the business climate has lost three points but, at 102, stands above its average. All balances of opinion have gone down except that on expected employment, which is stable. Those on expected demand and past employment have plummeted. Only the balances on expected activity and general outlook are above their average level.

The climate has recovered in real estate activities

In real estate activities, the climate has gained two points again, to 101, and has moved above its average for the first time since September 2017. The balance on past employment has sharply recovered whereas that on expected employment has fallen back. The balances on past activity and general outlook are slightly below their average, all the others are above theirs.

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the climate has sharply improved

The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has gained four points. At 111, it stands largely above its long-term average and has reached its highest level since January 2008. Only the balance on past employment has sharply declined. All balances are above their average.

The climate has improved again in administrative and support services

In administrative and support service activities, the climate has improved again and gained two points. At 104, it stands above its average. Most of the balances have increased; only those on past activity and on past employment have weakened.

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 23 October 2019 at 8:45 am

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 23 October 2019 at 8:45 am

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr