27 August 2019
2019- n° 217In August 2019, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - August 2019
According to business managers surveyed in August 2019, the business climate in services is stable. At 105, it remains above its long-term average (100).
Otherwise, the indicator of July 2019 has been revised downwards by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.
- Business managers remain optimistic on the general outlook on their sector
- In road freight transport, the business climate has sharply deteriorated
- In accommodation and food services, the business climate remains well above its average
- The climate is stable in information-communication
- The climate remains gloomy in real estate activities
- In professional, scientific and technical activities, the climate has worsened but remains favourable
- The climate has strengthened in administrative and support services
- For further information
According to business managers surveyed in August 2019, the business climate in services is stable. At 105, it remains above its long-term average (100).
Otherwise, the indicator of July 2019 has been revised downwards by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 111.3 |
| 2000-06 | 114.7 |
| 2000-07 | 113.1 |
| 2000-08 | 115.4 |
| 2000-09 | 116.9 |
| 2000-10 | 116.2 |
| 2000-11 | 115.1 |
| 2000-12 | 115.7 |
| 2001-01 | 114.7 |
| 2001-02 | 113.4 |
| 2001-03 | 113.7 |
| 2001-04 | 109.0 |
| 2001-05 | 106.1 |
| 2001-06 | 105.9 |
| 2001-07 | 103.5 |
| 2001-08 | 102.7 |
| 2001-09 | 101.2 |
| 2001-10 | 96.0 |
| 2001-11 | 95.3 |
| 2001-12 | 95.7 |
| 2002-01 | 96.7 |
| 2002-02 | 98.0 |
| 2002-03 | 102.2 |
| 2002-04 | 104.5 |
| 2002-05 | 105.5 |
| 2002-06 | 102.7 |
| 2002-07 | 100.9 |
| 2002-08 | 99.3 |
| 2002-09 | 97.2 |
| 2002-10 | 98.0 |
| 2002-11 | 99.6 |
| 2002-12 | 100.6 |
| 2003-01 | 96.9 |
| 2003-02 | 95.4 |
| 2003-03 | 90.1 |
| 2003-04 | 87.1 |
| 2003-05 | 91.6 |
| 2003-06 | 93.2 |
| 2003-07 | 96.7 |
| 2003-08 | 98.2 |
| 2003-09 | 99.3 |
| 2003-10 | 100.2 |
| 2003-11 | 101.7 |
| 2003-12 | 104.3 |
| 2004-01 | 106.6 |
| 2004-02 | 106.7 |
| 2004-03 | 106.4 |
| 2004-04 | 106.1 |
| 2004-05 | 106.8 |
| 2004-06 | 105.5 |
| 2004-07 | 106.9 |
| 2004-08 | 106.3 |
| 2004-09 | 105.5 |
| 2004-10 | 106.9 |
| 2004-11 | 106.3 |
| 2004-12 | 109.6 |
| 2005-01 | 106.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.6 |
| 2005-03 | 108.9 |
| 2005-04 | 108.6 |
| 2005-05 | 106.4 |
| 2005-06 | 109.0 |
| 2005-07 | 108.3 |
| 2005-08 | 108.0 |
| 2005-09 | 107.6 |
| 2005-10 | 109.1 |
| 2005-11 | 106.9 |
| 2005-12 | 107.2 |
| 2006-01 | 109.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.8 |
| 2006-03 | 108.2 |
| 2006-04 | 108.5 |
| 2006-05 | 111.4 |
| 2006-06 | 110.0 |
| 2006-07 | 111.2 |
| 2006-08 | 111.3 |
| 2006-09 | 111.6 |
| 2006-10 | 111.9 |
| 2006-11 | 114.3 |
| 2006-12 | 112.5 |
| 2007-01 | 111.8 |
| 2007-02 | 113.3 |
| 2007-03 | 114.5 |
| 2007-04 | 114.2 |
| 2007-05 | 114.1 |
| 2007-06 | 113.7 |
| 2007-07 | 114.3 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-09 | 112.5 |
| 2007-10 | 111.1 |
| 2007-11 | 111.2 |
| 2007-12 | 109.9 |
| 2008-01 | 111.4 |
| 2008-02 | 109.5 |
| 2008-03 | 109.5 |
| 2008-04 | 107.8 |
| 2008-05 | 105.0 |
| 2008-06 | 101.5 |
| 2008-07 | 96.7 |
| 2008-08 | 95.1 |
| 2008-09 | 92.8 |
| 2008-10 | 83.3 |
| 2008-11 | 78.9 |
| 2008-12 | 75.3 |
| 2009-01 | 72.4 |
| 2009-02 | 71.1 |
| 2009-03 | 65.4 |
| 2009-04 | 65.4 |
| 2009-05 | 69.9 |
| 2009-06 | 75.1 |
| 2009-07 | 79.2 |
| 2009-08 | 82.2 |
| 2009-09 | 85.7 |
| 2009-10 | 89.2 |
| 2009-11 | 90.7 |
| 2009-12 | 91.3 |
| 2010-01 | 93.0 |
| 2010-02 | 93.2 |
| 2010-03 | 93.4 |
| 2010-04 | 97.0 |
| 2010-05 | 98.8 |
| 2010-06 | 97.8 |
| 2010-07 | 98.8 |
| 2010-08 | 100.5 |
| 2010-09 | 101.6 |
| 2010-10 | 103.0 |
| 2010-11 | 105.1 |
| 2010-12 | 107.3 |
| 2011-01 | 107.6 |
| 2011-02 | 110.1 |
| 2011-03 | 111.4 |
| 2011-04 | 109.9 |
| 2011-05 | 108.3 |
| 2011-06 | 107.8 |
| 2011-07 | 105.6 |
| 2011-08 | 100.7 |
| 2011-09 | 98.2 |
| 2011-10 | 97.0 |
| 2011-11 | 94.6 |
| 2011-12 | 94.2 |
| 2012-01 | 92.1 |
| 2012-02 | 91.4 |
| 2012-03 | 92.9 |
| 2012-04 | 95.1 |
| 2012-05 | 91.0 |
| 2012-06 | 88.8 |
| 2012-07 | 88.3 |
| 2012-08 | 86.0 |
| 2012-09 | 85.7 |
| 2012-10 | 84.4 |
| 2012-11 | 83.7 |
| 2012-12 | 85.5 |
| 2013-01 | 86.7 |
| 2013-02 | 85.3 |
| 2013-03 | 82.2 |
| 2013-04 | 81.2 |
| 2013-05 | 82.8 |
| 2013-06 | 84.3 |
| 2013-07 | 84.8 |
| 2013-08 | 86.9 |
| 2013-09 | 91.0 |
| 2013-10 | 90.4 |
| 2013-11 | 91.3 |
| 2013-12 | 89.6 |
| 2014-01 | 91.1 |
| 2014-02 | 90.9 |
| 2014-03 | 91.9 |
| 2014-04 | 92.3 |
| 2014-05 | 91.1 |
| 2014-06 | 91.1 |
| 2014-07 | 91.4 |
| 2014-08 | 90.3 |
| 2014-09 | 89.7 |
| 2014-10 | 90.1 |
| 2014-11 | 90.0 |
| 2014-12 | 90.1 |
| 2015-01 | 89.8 |
| 2015-02 | 90.1 |
| 2015-03 | 91.1 |
| 2015-04 | 92.8 |
| 2015-05 | 94.5 |
| 2015-06 | 96.1 |
| 2015-07 | 96.9 |
| 2015-08 | 98.1 |
| 2015-09 | 97.0 |
| 2015-10 | 99.2 |
| 2015-11 | 98.9 |
| 2015-12 | 96.5 |
| 2016-01 | 99.7 |
| 2016-02 | 99.5 |
| 2016-03 | 99.2 |
| 2016-04 | 97.9 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-06 | 98.7 |
| 2016-07 | 100.1 |
| 2016-08 | 99.7 |
| 2016-09 | 100.6 |
| 2016-10 | 100.5 |
| 2016-11 | 100.6 |
| 2016-12 | 103.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-03 | 103.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.6 |
| 2017-07 | 103.9 |
| 2017-08 | 106.2 |
| 2017-09 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 107.2 |
| 2017-11 | 107.9 |
| 2017-12 | 109.5 |
| 2018-01 | 108.2 |
| 2018-02 | 106.9 |
| 2018-03 | 107.1 |
| 2018-04 | 106.1 |
| 2018-05 | 104.4 |
| 2018-06 | 105.0 |
| 2018-07 | 104.5 |
| 2018-08 | 103.7 |
| 2018-09 | 104.6 |
| 2018-10 | 103.2 |
| 2018-11 | 103.8 |
| 2018-12 | 101.9 |
| 2019-01 | 103.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-03 | 104.8 |
| 2019-04 | 105.7 |
| 2019-05 | 106.1 |
| 2019-06 | 106.6 |
| 2019-07 | 105.2 |
| 2019-08 | 105.0 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
Business managers remain optimistic on the general outlook on their sector
The balances of opinion on the general outlook of business managers on their sector, on expected activity and on expected demand are stable or virtually stable and above their long-term average. The balance on past activity has slightly decreased but remains nevertheless above its level average.
The balances on past and expected selling prices have shrunk in August, particularly that on expected prices. They remain however above their average.
The balance on past employment has bounced back and that on expected employment has continued to grow. These two balances stand above their long-term average.
The balance on past investments has fallen again; that on expected investments is stable. These two balances stand just above their average.
In August 2019, the turning point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.
tableauTurning-point indicator
| Turning-point indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2010-01 | 0.96 |
| 2010-02 | -0.14 |
| 2010-03 | 0.44 |
| 2010-04 | 0.86 |
| 2010-05 | 0.99 |
| 2010-06 | 0.9 |
| 2010-07 | 0.77 |
| 2010-08 | 0.97 |
| 2010-09 | 0.97 |
| 2010-10 | 0.97 |
| 2010-11 | 0.96 |
| 2010-12 | 0.99 |
| 2011-01 | 0.91 |
| 2011-02 | 0.98 |
| 2011-03 | 1.0 |
| 2011-04 | 0.9 |
| 2011-05 | 0.51 |
| 2011-06 | 0.69 |
| 2011-07 | 0.16 |
| 2011-08 | -0.84 |
| 2011-09 | -0.98 |
| 2011-10 | -0.87 |
| 2011-11 | -0.81 |
| 2011-12 | -0.69 |
| 2012-01 | -0.69 |
| 2012-02 | -0.86 |
| 2012-03 | -0.59 |
| 2012-04 | -0.53 |
| 2012-05 | -0.94 |
| 2012-06 | -0.99 |
| 2012-07 | -0.88 |
| 2012-08 | -0.92 |
| 2012-09 | -0.78 |
| 2012-10 | -0.88 |
| 2012-11 | -0.83 |
| 2012-12 | -0.59 |
| 2013-01 | -0.37 |
| 2013-02 | -0.92 |
| 2013-03 | -0.95 |
| 2013-04 | -0.99 |
| 2013-05 | -0.88 |
| 2013-06 | -0.64 |
| 2013-07 | -0.58 |
| 2013-08 | -0.48 |
| 2013-09 | 0.32 |
| 2013-10 | -0.34 |
| 2013-11 | -0.03 |
| 2013-12 | -0.54 |
| 2014-01 | -0.36 |
| 2014-02 | -0.3 |
| 2014-03 | -0.24 |
| 2014-04 | -0.2 |
| 2014-05 | -0.89 |
| 2014-06 | -0.78 |
| 2014-07 | -0.69 |
| 2014-08 | -0.85 |
| 2014-09 | -0.7 |
| 2014-10 | -0.6 |
| 2014-11 | -0.95 |
| 2014-12 | -0.9 |
| 2015-01 | -0.99 |
| 2015-02 | -0.92 |
| 2015-03 | -0.78 |
| 2015-04 | -0.66 |
| 2015-05 | 0.52 |
| 2015-06 | 0.6 |
| 2015-07 | 0.7 |
| 2015-08 | 0.72 |
| 2015-09 | -0.47 |
| 2015-10 | 0.76 |
| 2015-11 | 0.72 |
| 2015-12 | -0.47 |
| 2016-01 | 0.48 |
| 2016-02 | 0.57 |
| 2016-03 | 0.37 |
| 2016-04 | 0.2 |
| 2016-05 | 0.77 |
| 2016-06 | -0.49 |
| 2016-07 | 0.14 |
| 2016-08 | -0.08 |
| 2016-09 | 0.38 |
| 2016-10 | 0.54 |
| 2016-11 | 0.27 |
| 2016-12 | 0.91 |
| 2017-01 | 0.73 |
| 2017-02 | 0.78 |
| 2017-03 | 0.7 |
| 2017-04 | 0.67 |
| 2017-05 | 0.15 |
| 2017-06 | 0.9 |
| 2017-07 | 0.78 |
| 2017-08 | 0.75 |
| 2017-09 | 0.97 |
| 2017-10 | 0.99 |
| 2017-11 | 0.99 |
| 2017-12 | 0.99 |
| 2018-01 | 0.84 |
| 2018-02 | 0.41 |
| 2018-03 | 0.49 |
| 2018-04 | 0.42 |
| 2018-05 | 0.48 |
| 2018-06 | 0.85 |
| 2018-07 | 0.75 |
| 2018-08 | 0.25 |
| 2018-09 | 0.4 |
| 2018-10 | -0.7 |
| 2018-11 | -0.49 |
| 2018-12 | -0.46 |
| 2019-01 | -0.22 |
| 2019-02 | -0.34 |
| 2019-03 | 0.75 |
| 2019-04 | 0.8 |
| 2019-05 | 0.98 |
| 2019-06 | 0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 0.83 |
| 2019-08 | 0.75 |
graphiqueTurning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between -0.3 and +0.3.
- Source: INSEE.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | May 2019 | June 2019 | July 2019 | Aug. 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 107 | 105 | 105 |
| General outlook | -7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Past activity | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -2 | 1 | 2 | -2 |
| Past employment | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Expected investments | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator stands above its average in all sub-sectors except in real estate activities. The climate has decreased again in road freight transport; it has fallen back too in professional, scientific and technical activities. In contrast, it has strengthened again in administrative and support services. It is stable in accommodation and food services, in information-communication and in real estate activites.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | May 2019 | June 2019 | July 2019 | Aug. 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 109 | 108 | 105 |
| Past activity | -5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -2 |
| Expected activity | -6 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -2 |
| Past employment | -5 | 2 | 3 | -2 | -7 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -5 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| General outlook | -19 | -7 | -2 | -6 | -9 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 114 | 106 | 106 |
| Past activity | -7 | -7 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -2 | 4 | -4 | -9 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -4 | 6 | -9 | -1 |
| Past employment | -4 | -4 | -1 | 2 | 2 |
| Expected employment | -5 | -3 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| General outlook | -13 | -6 | 2 | -4 | -9 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 107 | 104 | 104 |
| Past activity | 8 | 23 | 17 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 16 | 21 | 13 | 15 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 14 |
| Past employment | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| General outlook | 0 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 94 | 98 | 97 | 97 |
| Past activity | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Past employment | 3 | -3 | 3 | -1 | -5 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| General outlook | -3 | -9 | -8 | -6 | -3 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 106 | 108 | 106 |
| Past activity | -1 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 3 | -1 | 5 | 0 |
| Past employment | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| General outlook | -8 | 2 | -2 | -1 | 0 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 97 | 101 | 104 |
| Past activity | 6 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 2 | -6 | 1 | 7 |
| Past employment | 9 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 6 |
| Expected employment | 8 | 4 | -13 | -5 | 3 |
| General outlook | -3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
In road freight transport, the business climate has sharply deteriorated
In road transport, the climate indicator has lost three points and retuned to its level of May. At 105, it remains nevertheless above its average. All balances of opinion have declined except that on expected employment. The balance on past employment has moved below its average; the other balances remain above theirs.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate remains well above its average
In accommodation and food services, the climate is stable at 106, well above its average. The sharp increase in the balances on expected demand, on past activity and on expected employment is offset by the decrease in these on expected activity and on the general outlook. Only the balance on expected activity stands below its average level.
The climate is stable in information-communication
In information-communication, the business climate is stable above its average, at 104. The decline in the balances on past activity, on expected demand, on expected employment and on the general outlook is offset by the significant improvement in these on past employment and on expected activity.
The climate remains gloomy in real estate activities
In real estate activities, the sluggish climate, at 97, remains below its average. The balances on past activity and on past employment have weakened whereas these on expected activity, on expected employment and on general outlook have recovered. The balances on activity and on past employment remain below their average.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the climate has worsened but remains favourable
The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has lost two points and returned to its level of June but stands, however, well above average, at 106. The balances on expected activity, on expected demand and on expected employment have sharply decreased. All balances remain however above their average.
The climate has strengthened in administrative and support services
In administrative and support service activities, the climate has improved again and gained three points. At 104, it stands above its average. The balances on expected activity, on expected demand and on expected employment have sharply increased. Only the balances on employment remain below their average.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 September 2019 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 September 2019 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
