26 March 2019

2019- n° 78

In March 2019, the business climate is stable in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - March 2019

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate is stable in March 2019. The composite indicator that measures stands at 102, as in February, above its long-term average (100).

In March 2019, many more managers than in Februaryhave indicated a decrease in their past sales. The corresponding balance of opinion has plummeted and has gone further from its long-term mean, reaching its lowest level since November 2014. In contrast, that on expected sales has improved sharply and has moved above its mean. Business managers are also more optimistic than in February concerning the general business outlook of the sector: after a sharp retreat in December, the corresponding balance of opinion has risen for the third consecutive month and stands above its mean, returning to a level similar to the one of November 2018. The ordering intentions have very slightly increased: the corresponding balance of opinion stands just above its mean. Alongside, for the third consecutive month, stocks are deemed slightly lower: the associated balance has decreased again in March and has come back to its average; it had reached in December 2018 its highest level since December 2016. The balance of opinion on expected prices has slightly risen again and remains above its mean. That on past prices has bounced back compared to Januay 2019 and has moved above its mean. The cash position is considered more favorable than in January 2019: the corresponding balance has recovered but is still slightly below its mean.

Slightly fewer managers than in February have reported an increase in their staff size during the last three months; the corresponding balance has reatreated below its average. Concerning expected employment, the corresponding balance is stable as a whole, but with discrepancies among the sectors: it has bounced back sharply in trade and repair of motor vehicles where it exceeds its long-tem mean even more, whereas its has slightly slippedagain in retail trade where it remains below its average.

In retail trade, the business climate has deteriorated: the composite indicator that measures it has lost two points, to 95, thereforeremaining as a consequence below its long-term mean.

Many more retailers of non-specialised trade than in February have indicated a decrease in their past sales : the corresponding balance has steeply fallen and has moved largely below its mean, toits lowest level since October 2014. Contrariwise, retailers of specialised-retail are less negativethan last month about their past sales: the corresponding balance has recovered and stands just below its mean. Overall, more retailers than the previous month have anticipated a rise in theirfuture sales: the corresponding balance has improved markedly and has moved above its mean. They are alo more optimistic than in February concerning the general business outlook of the sector: the corresponding balance has risen for the third month in a row and has exceeded even more its long-term mean. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has sharply bounced back in specialised retail trade whereas it has edged down in non-specialised retail trade. In both sectors, it remains below its long-term mean.

Overall, retailers have reported lower stocks: the corresponding balance has decreased again and has moved below its average, to its lowest level since February 2017. Fewer retailers than last month have planned to rise their prices: after a rebound in February, the corresponding balance has fallen back in March but remains above its average. Nevertheless, more retailers than in January 2019 have indicated a rise in their past prices: the corresponding balance has risen and has returned above itsmean. The cash position is estimated less unfavorable than in January: the corresponding balance stands now just below its mean.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator has gained one point in March. At 108, it remains largely above its long-term average (100).

The balance concerning the general business outlook has increased for the third consecutive month and has exceeded its long-term average even more. Contrariwise, the balances of opinion on past and expected sales, and on ordering intentionshavedecreased. They stand below their mean for the past sales, above it for the two others. The balance on ordering intentions has reached its lowest level since three years. Stocks are deemed higher than in February: the corresponding balance has recovered and remains at a high level. The balances of opinion on expected prices and past prices have risen: that on past prices has gone above its mean whereas that on expected prices has moved away even further. The balance on cash positionhas barely changedand standsabove its mean.