23 January 2019

2019- n° 18

In January 2019, the business climate worsens significantly in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - January 2019

According to the managers surveyed in January 2019, the business climate has significantly worsened in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator has fallen back by five points compared to November 2018. At 99, it has fallen below its long-term average (100) for the first time since January 2017.

In January 2019 significantly more wholesalers than in November 2018 have indicated a decrease in their past sales, total and for foreign trade. The corresponding balances of opinion have fallen again and stand below their long-term average. The balances about received merchandise, total and for foreign trade,have slightly edged down and remain close from their average.

In January, wholesalers are markedly more pessimistic than in November about the general business outlook for the sector. The related balance has dropped by 16 points, likely in connection with the "yellow vests" social movement. Nevertheless, it stays slightly above its long term average. The balances about ordering intentions from France or abroad and shipments abroad have declined but remain at or slightly above their average.

The balances of opinion concerning past and expected workforce havedeclined but still stand above their long-term average.

The balances of opinion about past and expected selling prices have gone down again, more markedly than in November. They stand below their long term average.

In the agricultural wholesale sector, the balances of opinion on past activity – sales, exports and imports – have picked up. Nevertheless, the one about ordering intentions has slipped back. These balances remain below their average.

In the food wholesaling sector, the balances concerning past sales, total and for export, merchandise received from abroad and ordering intentions have slipped back. The balances related to past activity have returned below their average while the balance about ordering intentions stands at its average level.

In this sector more managers than in November have declared a decrease in their past activity in France and, most of all, with foreign countries, as well as a fall in their ordering intentions. The balances about past activitystand below their average while that concerning ordering intentions stays slightly above its average.

In wholesale trade for this type of capital goods, the balancesof opinion about sales, received merchandise and ordering intentions have decreased. In particular, that on total sales has plummeted. The balances related to sales stand well below their mean level while that concerning imports and ordering intentions remain above their average.

In this type of wholesale trade, the balances concerning past sales, total and exports, have declined again. That related to imports and ordering intentions have also shrunk. The balances about sales stand at their average level or almost while that about imports and ordering intentions remain above their average.

In this sector, slightly more business managers than in November have declared a rise in their past total sales. The balance of opinion on export sales has slightly dipped while that on received merchandise from abroad has sharply bounced back. However, the balance of opinion about ordering intentions has fallen back considerably. Only the balance about sales abroad stands below its average.