22 November 2018
2018- n° 307In November 2018, the business climate is stable in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - November 2018
According to the managers surveyed in November 2018, the business climate is stable in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator stays at 104, above its long-term average (100), which it has exceeded since January 2017.
- The balances of opinion on past activity have decreased
- More optimistic business outlook
- Decrease in the balance on past employment
- Prices are less often considered to be rising
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in November 2018, the business climate is stable in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator stays at 104, above its long-term average (100), which it has exceeded since January 2017.
graphiqueChart 1 – Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator has moved into the area indicating a favorable short-term economic situation.
graphiqueChart 2 – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between -0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.
The balances of opinion on past activity have decreased
In November, less wholesalers than in September have indicated an increase in their past sales, both total and to foreign countries. The balance of opinion regarding received merchandise is virtually stable. The balances of opinion about total sales and total received merchandise remain above their long-term average, but those related to foreign trade stand at or slightly below their average.
More optimistic business outlook
Regarding the upcoming months, the four balances about ordering intentions total and abroad, shipments abroad and general business outlook have picked up in November after a sharp decrease in September. Each of these balances stands above its mean level.
Decrease in the balance on past employment
The balance of opinion concerning past workforce has fallen back while that on expected employment is stable. Both balances remain above their long-term average.
Prices are less often considered to be rising
Less wholesalers than in September have declared a rise in their past and expected prices. The first of the two balances stands just above its average; the second one is below it.
tableauTable 1 – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | May 18 | July 18 | Sept. 18 | Nov. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| General business outlook | –23 | 8 | 0 | –7 | –5 |
| Sales | –14 | –10 | –15 | –8 | –12 |
| export sales | –15 | –12 | –18 | –13 | –16 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –6 | –10 | –7 | –8 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –13 | –13 | –10 | –10 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –7 | –7 | –9 | –6 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –9 | –8 | –11 | –9 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –10 | –8 | –13 | –11 |
| Current stock | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| Past workforce | –1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Expected workforce | –2 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 |
| Cash position | –9 | –3 | –5 | –4 | –5 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Expecting selling prices | 14 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 11 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In the agricultural wholesale sector, less managers than in September have declared an increase in their past activity – total sales, exports and imports. Nevertheless, the balance about ordering intentions has sharply improved. These four balances remain below their average.
Food products and beverages
In the food wholesaling sector, the balance related to sales has edged down but remains above its mean level. The balances related to exports, imports and ordering intentions have increased and stand above their average.
Household goods
In this sector, the four balances related to past and expected activity have picked up. The balances about sales and imports remain below their mean level while those related to exports and ordering intentions remain above it.
Capital goods in information and communication
In that type of wholesale trade, considerably less managers than in September have declared a rise in their total and export sales. The balance about ordering intention has also fallen back. However, the balance about received merchandise from abroad has kept increasing. The four balances remain above their average. The one concerning past sales had reached in September its highest point in seven years.
Other industrial capital goods
In that type of wholesale trade, the balance related to export sales has edged down while the one concerning ordering intentions has slightly recovered. Those related to total sales and received merchandise are practically stable. The four balances remain above their average.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, slightly less business managers than in September have declared a fall in their past sales, total or abroad. However, ordering intentions are more often declared to be rising. These three balances remain above their mean level. The balance about imports has sharply decreased to below its long-term average.
graphiqueChart 3 – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableauTable 2 – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | May 18 | July 18 | Sept. 18 | Nov. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –13 | –28 | –27 | –17 | –23 |
| Export sales | –16 | –21 | –41 | –37 | –41 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –38 | –21 | –19 | –25 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –18 | –16 | –22 | –13 |
| Current stock | 5 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 3 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –13 | –16 | –8 | –9 |
| Export sales | –12 | –16 | –18 | –11 | –9 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –27 | –21 | –16 | –9 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –8 | –4 | –7 | –6 |
| Current stock | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –15 | –25 | –15 | –14 |
| Export sales | –11 | –8 | –18 | –9 | –6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –3 | –9 | –10 | –7 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –5 | –8 | –11 | –9 |
| Current stock | 12 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 5 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –8 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
| Export sales | –13 | –6 | –3 | 6 | –14 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –12 | –10 | –5 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –7 | –2 | 2 | –1 |
| Current stock | 8 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 14 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –5 | –8 | –7 | –8 |
| Export sales | –21 | –11 | –17 | –14 | –16 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –1 | –4 | –4 | –3 |
| Ordering intentions | –21 | –2 | –8 | –8 | –6 |
| Current stock | 11 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 11 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –17 | 2 | –11 | –11 | –12 |
| Export sales | –19 | –12 | –11 | –16 | –18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –12 | –4 | –7 | –3 | –16 |
| Ordering intentions | –18 | –4 | –6 | –9 | –4 |
| Current stock | 6 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
