Informations rapides
24 October 2018
2018- n° 275
In October 2018, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - October 2018

According to business managers surveyed in October 2018, the business climate is stable in services. The composite indicator which measures it stands at 105 above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 275
Paru le :Paru le24/10/2018
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025

According to business managers surveyed in October 2018, the business climate is stable in services. The composite indicator which measures it stands at 105 above its long-term average (100).

Graph 1Business climate composite indicator

The turning point indicator remains in the area indicating an uncertain short-term economic situation.

Graph 2Turning point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively –1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Decrease in the balances of opinion on past activity and expected demand

The balances of opinion on past activity and on expected demand have weakened, that on past activity has even fallen below its average. The balance on expected activity has slightly increased, that on general outlook is stable. Both of them are above their average level.

The balances on past and on expected employment have slightly improved, in particular due to temporary

work agencies. They stand above their long-term average. However, the balance on difficulties in recruitment declared by the business managers has sharply increased from July to October and reached its highest level since October 2001.

The balances on investments have declined but remain above their average.

The balances on past and expected operating balance result and on cash position have deteriorated.

Table 1Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted) -
Average* July 18 Aug. 18 Sept. 18 Oct. 18
Composite indicator 100 105 104 105 105
General outlook –7 0 –3 –1 –1
Past activity 2 5 1 2 0
Expected activity 2 4 4 6 7
Expected demand 0 5 5 6 4
Past selling prices –4 –7 –2 –3 –6
Expected selling prices –3 –5 0 –3 –2
Past employment 3 6 3 3 4
except temporary work agencies 1 1 1 3 4
Expected employment 3 6 7 6 9
except temporary work agencies 0 4 5 4 5
Investments
Past investments 2 7 8 10 7
Expected investments 2 6 4 6 3
Operating balance result
Past result –2 3 –5
Expected result –2 0 –1
Cash position –11 –7 –9
Difficulties of supply and demand
difficulties of supply and demand 10 6 8
difficulties of supply only 23 32 30
difficulties of demand only 32 23 25
Difficulties in recruitment 28 34 42
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
  • Source: Insee, business survey in services

The business climate indicator has increased in road transport, in real estate activities, in professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support service activities. It has decreased in accommodation and food services and in information-communication. It stands well above its average in transport, in accommodation and food service activities in professional activities and in administrative activities. It stands just below its average in information-communication and clearly below in real estate activities.

In road transport, the business climate has improved again

In road transport, the business climate has gained two points (109) and remains well above its average. All the balances of opinion have gone up, except that on past activity. All the balances are clearly above their long-term average.

The business climate has weakened a little in accommodation and food service activities

In accommodation and food service activities, the business climate has lost one point. However, at 111, it remains sharply above its average. The balances on expected demand, on employment and on general outlook have decreased. Conversely, the balances on past and expected activity have sharply bounced back. Except the balance on expected employment, all balances are well above their average.

In information and communication, the business climate has dropped just below its average

In information and communication, the climate has lost three points and fallen just below its average (99). This decline is due to the sharp fall in the balances on past activity, expected demand and general outlook. These balances stand below their average. In contrast, the balance on past employment has sharply grown.

The business climate has strengthened in real estate activities

In real estate activities, the business climate has improved again. However, at 91, it remains significantly below its average. The balances on expected demand and on past employment have increased. These on past and expected activity, on past employment and on general outlook stand well below their average level.

The business climate has improved in professional, scientific and technical activities

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has gained two points (109) and thus, stands well above its average level. All balances have gone up, except that on expected activity, which is stable. Otherwise, they are all above their average

In administrative and support service activities, the business climate has improved again

The climate has gained two points in administrative and support service activities. At 110, it stands clearly above its average. All balances have risen and only the balance on past employment is below its long-term average.

Table 2Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted) -
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* July 18 Aug. 18 Sept. 18 Oct. 18
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 114 108 107 109
Past activity –6 17 10 11 7
Expected activity –7 14 3 0 4
Expected demand –9 18 7 2 6
Past employment –5 8 5 –3 3
Expected employment –8 5 2 4 6
General outlook –20 5 –6 –4 0
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 113 112 112 111
Past activity –7 –1 –6 –8 3
Expected activity –7 10 5 1 7
Expected demand –9 4 –4 7 1
Past employment –4 0 –1 5 3
Expected employment –5 1 6 –6 –13
General outlook –13 –3 7 1 –2
Information and communication (24%)
Composite indicator 100 101 101 102 99
Past activity 8 10 8 4 –9
Expected activity 9 7 5 12 12
Expected demand 10 4 4 4 –5
Past employment 6 8 6 2 7
Expected employment 11 12 14 17 17
General outlook 0 1 –1 1 –3
Real estate activities (13%)
Composite indicator 100 84 85 89 91
Past activity 7 0 –14 –6 –5
Expected activity 7 –8 –2 0 0
Expected demand 2 3 5 5 8
Past employment 3 –2 –9 –8 –5
Expected employment 3 –3 7 7 7
General outlook –3 –16 –15 –11 –12
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 104 104 107 109
Past activity –1 –2 1 1 3
Expected activity –2 0 –1 5 5
Expected demand –5 2 4 0 4
Past employment 1 1 –2 1 5
Expected employment 1 1 2 9 10
General outlook –8 –3 –4 –2 2
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 108 107 108 110
Past activity 6 13 6 9 10
Expected activity 5 11 15 15 18
Expected demand 3 13 13 15 16
Past employment 10 14 8 2 6
Expected employment 8 11 7 11 20
General outlook –4 9 4 6 9
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (February 2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (February 2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

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