23 August 2018
2018- n° 215Business leaders in manufacturing industry continue to plan to increase their investment
in 2018 Industrial investment survey - July 2018
The business managers in industry surveyed in July 2018 stated that their investment increased by 5% in 2017 in nominal terms. For 2018, the business leaders in industry forecast a 4% increase in their investment spending compared with 2017.
The business managers in industry surveyed in July 2018 stated that their investment increased by 5% in 2017 in nominal terms. They thus raised their last April estimate (+2 points) whereas they usually revise little their observation at this time of year (+0.4 points on average). For 2018, the business leaders in industry forecast a 4% increase in their investment spending compared with 2017.
graphiqueGraph 1 – Annual nominal change in investment in the manufacturing industry
- Source: INSEE - Industrial investment survey
For 2018, business managers maintain a sustained investment forecast
With an expected overall increase of 4% in investment for 2018, business managers have reduced by one point their April 2018 estimate. This revision is consistent with that usually observed at this time of the year.
For 2018, investment in the sector of electrical, electronic and machine equipment is expected to increase again significantly. It should be dynamic in “other manufacturing” and should recover in the transport equipment sector. It should be virtually stable in the agri-food industry.
Industrialists could revise their investment forecast for 2018 in the coming quarters: on average since 2004, the forecast issued in July has indeed tended to overestimate the trend ultimately declared in July of the following year.
tableauTable 1 – Real annual investment growth in the manufacturing industry by major sector
| NA* : (A17) and [A38] | 2017 | 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| estimate Apr.18 | observed Jul.18 | forecast Apr.18 | forecast Jul.18 | |
| C: MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages | 5 | 5 | 0 | –1 |
| (C3): Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment | 17 | 25 | 15 | 11 |
| (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment | –7 | –8 | 2 | 3 |
| [CL1]: Motor vehicles | –8 | –10 | 4 | 3 |
| (C5): Other manufacturing | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| Total sectors (C3-C4-C5) | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
- How to read this table: In the manufacturing industry, firms surveyed in July 2018 observed a nominal investment increase of 5% in 2017 compared with 2016 and forecast an increase of 4% in 2018 compared with 2017.
- * The codes correspond to the level of aggregation (A17) and [A38] of the "NA" aggregate classification based on NAF rev.2.
- Source: INSEE - Industrial investment survey
Industrialists remain optimistic about their investments for the second half of the year
More business managers in industry reported a rise rather than a fall in their investment for H1 2018. The balance of opinion for the previous semester (+17), well above its long-term average (+6), is slightly higher in July than in January.
For H2 2018, more business managers also forecast an increase in their investment than a drop. The balance for the expected investment in the current semester (at +9) is slightly lower than in January but remains well above its long-term average (+3).
graphiqueGraph 2 – Opinion of industrials regarding six-month change in investment (second estimate)
- Note: this graph illustrates the opinion balances of industrials surveyed for the second time on their investment over the previous semester and on their expected investment for the current semester (January and July surveys).
- How to read this graph: In the manufacturing industry, more business leaders surveyed in July 2018 indicated an increase in their investment than a drop between H2 2017 and H1 2018 (“previous semester”). More business leaders also anticipated an increase in their investment than a decrease between H1 2018 and H2 2018 (“expected current semester”).
- Source: INSEE - Industrial investment survey
Documentation
Methodology 2017 (pdf,147 Ko)
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Time series : Industry – Investment
