Informations rapides
24 July 2018
2018- n° 188
In July 2018, the business climate remains stable in services Monthly survey of services - July 2018

According to business managers surveyed in July 2018, the business climate remains stable in services. The composite indicator which measures it has stood at 104 since May 2018, above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 188
Paru le :Paru le24/07/2018
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025

According to business managers surveyed in July 2018, the business climate remains stable in services. The composite indicator which measures it has stood at 104 since May 2018, above its long-term average (100).

Graph 1Business climate composite indicator

The turning point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.

Graph 2Turning point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively –1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

The balances of opinion on expected activity and demand on increase

The balances of opinion on expected activity and on expected demand have increased again whereas that on past activity has declined sharply. The balance on general outlook has bounced back slightly. These balances stand above their long-term average.

The balances on selling prices have weakened markedly and stand well below their average.

The balance on past employment has deteriorated, including temporary work agencies, and comes back to its average. That on expected employment is virtually stable and remains well above its average level.

The balance on past result has recovered whereas that on expected result has decreased. They stand both above their long-term average.

The balance on difficulties in recruitment has gone down but remains at a high level.

Table 1Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted) -
Average* April 18 May 18 June 18 July 18
Composite indicator 100 107 104 104 104
General outlook –7 3 0 –2 –1
Past activity 2 8 1 6 3
Expected activity 2 5 1 3 4
Expected demand 0 4 2 3 5
Past selling prices –4 0 –2 –1 –7
Expected selling prices –3 –3 –3 –5 –7
Past employment 3 3 3 9 3
except temporary work agencies 1 1 0 5 1
Expected employment 3 12 12 7 8
except temporary work agencies 0 5 6 5 5
Investments
Past investments 2 7 7 3 5
Expected investments 2 4 8 6 6
Operating balance result
Past result –2 1 3
Expected result –2 2 0
Cash position –11 –7 –6
Difficulties of supply and demand
difficulties of supply and demand 10 8 6
difficulties of supply only 22 31 32
difficulties of demand only 32 23 23
Difficulties in recruitment 28 37 33
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
  • Source: Insee, business survey in services

The business climate is above its average in all sub-sectors except in real estate where it stands below and in information-communication where it has returned to it. It has improved in road transport and in accommodation and food service activities. It has weakened in information-communication, in real estate activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities. It remains steady in administrative and support service activities.

In road transport, the business climate has grown again

In road transport, the business climate has gained two points (114) and remains sharply above its average level. All the balances of opinion have gone up, particulary that on past activity. Moreover, they are all clearly above their long-term average.

The business climate has bounced back in accommodation and food service activities

In accommodation and food service activities, the business climate has increased by two points (109), well above its long-term average. The balances on past activity and on past employment have fallen whereas that on expected activity and on expected employment have recovered clearly. The balances on expected activity and general outlook are markedly above their average.

In information and communication, the business climate has decreased slightly

In information and communication, the climate has weakened and reached its average (100). The balances on general outlook, on past activity, and on past employment have declined slightly. The balances on expected activity and on expected demand have increased again but remain below their average level.

The business climate remains deteriorated in real estate activities

In real estate activities, the business climate, sharply below its average, has lost two points (86) due to the decline of the balances on past activity, on expected demand and on employment. The balances on general outlook and expected activity have recovered but are still markedly below their average.

The business climate has decreased in professional, scientific and technical activities

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has lost two points. At 106, it stands however above its average level. All balances of opinion have worsened except that on expected demand. Nevertheless, all the balances remain above their average.

In administrative and support service activities, the business climate remains stable

The climate has been stable since May 2018 in administrative and support service activities. At 108, it remains well above its average. The balances on past activity and on past employment have weakened whereas that on general outlook, on expected demand and on expected activity have increased. Only the balance on past employment is below its average.

Table 2Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted) -
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* April 18 May 18 June 18 July 18
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 110 110 112 114
Past activity –6 14 5 5 16
Expected activity –7 6 6 10 13
Expected demand –10 8 9 16 17
Past employment –5 –1 7 3 9
Expected employment –8 2 5 0 5
General outlook –20 6 7 1 5
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 112 108 107 109
Past activity –7 9 –3 –1 –11
Expected activity –7 3 –1 0 7
Expected demand –9 2 –1 –3 –1
Past employment –4 –4 –4 2 –7
Expected employment –5 –3 3 –5 1
General outlook –13 –1 –6 –5 –3
Information and communication (24%)
Composite indicator 100 102 100 101 100
Past activity 8 5 –10 6 3
Expected activity 9 5 1 6 7
Expected demand 10 4 –1 0 2
Past employment 6 18 12 9 7
Expected employment 11 13 13 13 14
General outlook 0 3 4 3 2
Real estate activities (13%)
Composite indicator 100 86 89 88 86
Past activity 7 –1 5 6 1
Expected activity 7 –7 –6 –10 –8
Expected demand 2 0 3 5 4
Past employment 3 –3 2 2 –2
Expected employment 3 11 6 6 –1
General outlook –3 –17 –16 –19 –15
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 109 105 108 106
Past activity –1 7 7 9 1
Expected activity –2 2 0 5 3
Expected demand –5 3 –1 –2 2
Past employment 1 10 4 13 7
Expected employment 1 11 12 10 6
General outlook –9 4 –3 –1 –4
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 110 108 108 108
Past activity 6 14 11 19 13
Expected activity 5 17 10 8 10
Expected demand 3 13 11 13 14
Past employment 10 0 6 13 7
Expected employment 8 23 22 13 13
General outlook –4 10 9 6 8
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

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: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr