24 July 2018
2018- n° 188In July 2018, the business climate remains stable in services Monthly survey of services - July 2018
According to business managers surveyed in July 2018, the business climate remains stable in services. The composite indicator which measures it has stood at 104 since May 2018, above its long-term average (100).
- The balances of opinion on expected activity and demand on increase
- In road transport, the business climate has grown again
- The business climate has bounced back in accommodation and food service activities
- In information and communication, the business climate has decreased slightly
- The business climate remains deteriorated in real estate activities
- The business climate has decreased in professional, scientific and technical activities
- In administrative and support service activities, the business climate remains stable
According to business managers surveyed in July 2018, the business climate remains stable in services. The composite indicator which measures it has stood at 104 since May 2018, above its long-term average (100).
graphiqueGraph 1 – Business climate composite indicator

The turning point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.
graphiqueGraph 2 – Turning point indicator

- Note: close to 1 (respectively –1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
The balances of opinion on expected activity and demand on increase
The balances of opinion on expected activity and on expected demand have increased again whereas that on past activity has declined sharply. The balance on general outlook has bounced back slightly. These balances stand above their long-term average.
The balances on selling prices have weakened markedly and stand well below their average.
The balance on past employment has deteriorated, including temporary work agencies, and comes back to its average. That on expected employment is virtually stable and remains well above its average level.
The balance on past result has recovered whereas that on expected result has decreased. They stand both above their long-term average.
The balance on difficulties in recruitment has gone down but remains at a high level.
tableauTable 1 – Economic outlook in the services sector
Average* | April 18 | May 18 | June 18 | July 18 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 104 | 104 | 104 |
General outlook | –7 | 3 | 0 | –2 | –1 |
Past activity | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
Expected activity | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Expected demand | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Past selling prices | –4 | 0 | –2 | –1 | –7 |
Expected selling prices | –3 | –3 | –3 | –5 | –7 |
Past employment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
except temporary work agencies | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
Expected employment | 3 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 8 |
except temporary work agencies | 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Investments | |||||
Past investments | 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
Expected investments | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
Operating balance result | |||||
Past result | –2 | 1 | 3 | ||
Expected result | –2 | 2 | 0 | ||
Cash position | –11 | –7 | –6 | ||
Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
difficulties of supply and demand | 10 | 8 | 6 | ||
difficulties of supply only | 22 | 31 | 32 | ||
difficulties of demand only | 32 | 23 | 23 | ||
Difficulties in recruitment | 28 | 37 | 33 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: Insee, business survey in services
The business climate is above its average in all sub-sectors except in real estate where it stands below and in information-communication where it has returned to it. It has improved in road transport and in accommodation and food service activities. It has weakened in information-communication, in real estate activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities. It remains steady in administrative and support service activities.
In road transport, the business climate has grown again
In road transport, the business climate has gained two points (114) and remains sharply above its average level. All the balances of opinion have gone up, particulary that on past activity. Moreover, they are all clearly above their long-term average.
The business climate has bounced back in accommodation and food service activities
In accommodation and food service activities, the business climate has increased by two points (109), well above its long-term average. The balances on past activity and on past employment have fallen whereas that on expected activity and on expected employment have recovered clearly. The balances on expected activity and general outlook are markedly above their average.
In information and communication, the business climate has decreased slightly
In information and communication, the climate has weakened and reached its average (100). The balances on general outlook, on past activity, and on past employment have declined slightly. The balances on expected activity and on expected demand have increased again but remain below their average level.
The business climate remains deteriorated in real estate activities
In real estate activities, the business climate, sharply below its average, has lost two points (86) due to the decline of the balances on past activity, on expected demand and on employment. The balances on general outlook and expected activity have recovered but are still markedly below their average.
The business climate has decreased in professional, scientific and technical activities
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has lost two points. At 106, it stands however above its average level. All balances of opinion have worsened except that on expected demand. Nevertheless, all the balances remain above their average.
In administrative and support service activities, the business climate remains stable
The climate has been stable since May 2018 in administrative and support service activities. At 108, it remains well above its average. The balances on past activity and on past employment have weakened whereas that on general outlook, on expected demand and on expected activity have increased. Only the balance on past employment is below its average.
tableauTable 2 – Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | April 18 | May 18 | June 18 | July 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Road transport (8%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 110 | 112 | 114 |
Past activity | –6 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
Expected activity | –7 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 13 |
Expected demand | –10 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 17 |
Past employment | –5 | –1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
Expected employment | –8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
General outlook | –20 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 112 | 108 | 107 | 109 |
Past activity | –7 | 9 | –3 | –1 | –11 |
Expected activity | –7 | 3 | –1 | 0 | 7 |
Expected demand | –9 | 2 | –1 | –3 | –1 |
Past employment | –4 | –4 | –4 | 2 | –7 |
Expected employment | –5 | –3 | 3 | –5 | 1 |
General outlook | –13 | –1 | –6 | –5 | –3 |
Information and communication (24%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 100 | 101 | 100 |
Past activity | 8 | 5 | –10 | 6 | 3 |
Expected activity | 9 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
Expected demand | 10 | 4 | –1 | 0 | 2 |
Past employment | 6 | 18 | 12 | 9 | 7 |
Expected employment | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
General outlook | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Real estate activities (13%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 86 | 89 | 88 | 86 |
Past activity | 7 | –1 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
Expected activity | 7 | –7 | –6 | –10 | –8 |
Expected demand | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Past employment | 3 | –3 | 2 | 2 | –2 |
Expected employment | 3 | 11 | 6 | 6 | –1 |
General outlook | –3 | –17 | –16 | –19 | –15 |
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 105 | 108 | 106 |
Past activity | –1 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
Expected activity | –2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
Expected demand | –5 | 3 | –1 | –2 | 2 |
Past employment | 1 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 7 |
Expected employment | 1 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 6 |
General outlook | –9 | 4 | –3 | –1 | –4 |
Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 108 | 108 | 108 |
Past activity | 6 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 13 |
Expected activity | 5 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
Expected demand | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
Past employment | 10 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
Expected employment | 8 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 13 |
General outlook | –4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 8 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (2017) (pdf,177 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services