24 July 2018
2018- n° 190In July 2018, the French business climate remains stable and the employment climate
is slightly less favourable Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - July 2018
In July 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, for the third month in a row, above its long-term mean. Compared to June, the business climate is stable in building construction and in services. It has gained one point in retail trade and has lost one in manufacturing industry. Compared to May, it has lost three points in wholesale trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The French business climate remains stable above its mean
In July 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, for the third month in a row, above its long-term mean. Compared to June, the business climate is stable in building construction and in services. It has gained one point in retail trade and has lost one in manufacturing industry. Compared to May, it has lost three points in wholesale trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The employment climate is slightly less favourable
In July 2018, the employment climate has weakened. The associated composite indicator has lost two points: it stands at 108, moving back to its level of May, well above its long-term average. This decrease mainly comes from a decline in the balance of opinion on past workforce size in services sector excluding temporary employment.
Revisions
Compared to its first estimate in June 2018, the composite indicator for the manufacturing industry has been lowered by one point. This revision results from the integration of late answers from businesses. As for the other indicators, they are unchanged.
graphiqueGraph 1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph 2 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable 1 – Business and employment climates
| March 18 | April 18 | May 18 | June 18 | July 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 109 | 108 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Manufacturing | 110 | 109 | 110 | 109 | 108 |
| Building | 107 | 108 | 108 | 109 | 109 |
| Services | 107 | 107 | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Retail trade | 113 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 113 |
| Wholesale trade | 110 | - | 104 | - | 101 |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 111 | 108 | 108 | 110 | 108 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable 2 – Turning point indicators
| March 18 | April 18 | May 18 | June 18 | July 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | –0.2 | –0.1 | –0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Manufacturing | –0.6 | –0.5 | –0.2 | –0.1 | 0.1 |
| Building | –0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Services | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.6 | - | –0.8 | - | –0.3 |
- Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph 3 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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