24 July 2018
2018- n° n° In July 2018, the business climate falters again in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - July 2018
According to the managers surveyed in July 2018, the business climate has faltered again in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has lost three points compared to May 2018. At 101, it remains slightly above its long-term average (100), that it has exceeded since January 2017.
- The balances of opinion on past activity have slipped back again
- General expected activity is still estimated less positively
- The balance on expected employment remains well above its average
- Increases in prices reported
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
Warning: the seasonal components have been updated in July 2018, as well as the parameters of the composite indicator, which leads to slight revisions. They are updated once a year
According to the managers surveyed in July 2018, the business climate has faltered again in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has lost three points compared to May 2018. At 101, it remains slightly above its long-term average (100), that it has exceeded since January 2017.
graphiqueChart_1 – Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator has moved into the area indicating an uncertain short-term economic situation.
graphiqueChart_2 – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between -0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.
The balances of opinion on past activity have slipped back again
More wholesalers than two months ago have indicated a decrease in their past sales and their received merchandise, total and for foreign trade. The corresponding balances of opinion are below their average or equal to it from now on.
General expected activity is still estimated less positively
The three balances about ordering intentions from France or abroad and shipments abroad are stable or almost. The balance on general business outlook for the whole sector of trade has continued to decrease since March. However, each of these four balances remains above its mean level.
The balance on expected employment remains well above its average
The balance of opinion concerning past workforce has shrunk for the fourth survey in a row, but stays above its mean level. The balance on expected employment is stable, well above its average.
Increases in prices reported
Slightly more wholesalers have declared a rise in their past and expected prices. The first of the two balances stands above its average; the second one remains below it.
tableauTable_1 – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | Jan. 18 | Mar. 18 | May. 18 | July 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 110 | 104 | 101 |
| General business outlook | –23 | 21 | 16 | 8 | –1 |
| Sales | –14 | –9 | –3 | –10 | –14 |
| export sales | –15 | –16 | –5 | –12 | –18 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –3 | –1 | –6 | –11 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –8 | –4 | –13 | –16 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –6 | –5 | –7 | –7 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –11 | –4 | –9 | –8 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –9 | –4 | –10 | –9 |
| Current stock | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Past workforce | –1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Expected workforce | –2 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Cash position | –9 | –4 | –4 | –3 | –4 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| Expecting selling prices | 14 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 9 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In agricultural wholesale sector, the balances of opinion on past activity, total and on export, have still fallen back. Nevertheless, the one about imports has recovered and the one on ordering intentions is stable. These four balances remain below their average.
Food products and beverages
In the food wholesaling sector, the balance concerning past sales has declined, the one about export sales is stable and the one on merchandise received from abroad has slightly risen. The three stand below their mean level. The balance about ordering intentions has progressed, above its average.
Household goods
In this sector, significantly more managers than in May have declared a decrease in their past activity – sales, exports and imports –. The three balances are below their average from now on. The ordering intentions are practically stable, above their mean level.
Capital goods in information and communication
The balance concerning past sales has progressed in this sector, at its highest point for more than seven years. Those on exports and imports are stable or almost, the first one above its average, the second one below. The one about ordering intentions has risen and stays above its mean level.
Other industrial capital goods
In that type of wholesale trade, the balances concerning past sales and received merchandise, total and for foreign trade have declined, as well as ordering intentions. Nevertheless, each of the four remain above its average.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, practically as many traders as in May have declared a fall in their past sales in France and abroad, and in their ordering intentions. Concerning merchandise received from abroad, the balance of opinion has fallen back. However, the four balances remain still above their mean level.
graphiqueChart_3 – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableauTable_2 – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | Jan. 18 | Mar. 18 | May. 18 | July 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –13 | –20 | –15 | –28 | –31 |
| Export sales | –16 | –37 | –5 | –21 | –47 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –26 | –15 | –38 | –32 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –15 | –17 | –18 | –18 |
| Current stock | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –14 | –3 | –13 | –16 |
| Export sales | –12 | –18 | –12 | –16 | –16 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –19 | –18 | –27 | –23 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –4 | –2 | –8 | –4 |
| Current stock | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –9 | –6 | –15 | –29 |
| Export sales | –11 | –10 | 4 | –8 | –17 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –5 | 0 | 8 | –3 | –12 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –4 | –1 | –5 | –6 |
| Current stock | 12 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –8 | –13 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Export sales | –13 | –14 | –9 | –6 | –6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | 5 | –4 | –12 | –13 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –5 | –8 | –7 | –1 |
| Current stock | 8 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | 8 | 2 | –5 | –7 |
| Export sales | –21 | –9 | –3 | –11 | –17 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | 1 | 0 | –1 | –4 |
| Ordering intentions | –21 | –4 | –6 | –2 | –7 |
| Current stock | 11 | 18 | 9 | 14 | 15 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –4 | –4 | 2 | 1 |
| Export sales | –19 | –14 | –6 | –12 | –13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –12 | –2 | –3 | –4 | –10 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –8 | –1 | –4 | –5 |
| Current stock | 6 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 7 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
