21 June 2018
2018- n° 160In June 2018, the business climate remains favourable in retail trade and in trade
and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - June 2018
According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate remains favourable in June 2018. The composite indicator that measures it has gained one point, to 112. It remains well above its long-term average (100), that it has reached or exceeded since February 2015. Besides, the business climate of May has been raised by one point because of late businesses' answers which have been taken into account.
According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate remains favourable in June 2018. The composite indicator that measures it has gained one point, to 112. It remains well above its long-term average (100), that it has reached or exceeded since February 2015. Besides, the business climate of May has been raised by one point because of late businesses' answers which have been taken into account.
graphiqueChart_1 – Business climate synthetic indicator
Stable opinion on past activity
As many managers as in May have declared a rise in their recent sales. The corresponding balance is stable just below its average. About the next three months, the managers' opinions are divided: the balance concerning expected sales has increased again and the one about ordering intentions is stable, while the one on general business outlook has continued its decline begun in January. However, each of the three balances remains above its long-term average.
Stocks are estimated slightly lower. The corresponding balance has faltered but stays below its mean level.
Fewer managers than in May have expected increases in prices on the next months. The balance stands below its average from now on.
tableauTable_1 – Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
| Ave. (1) | Mar. 18 | Apr. 18 | May 18 | June 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 113 | 111 | 111 | 112 |
| General business outlook | –28 | 0 | –4 | –5 | –7 |
| Recent sales | –6 | –9 | –9 | –7 | –7 |
| Expected sales | –2 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Stocks | 11 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –6 | –1 | –2 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –2 | –2 | –3 | –5 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –16 | –12 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –3 | 1 | 0 | –2 | 2 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueChart_2 – Recent sales and ordering intentions
More optimistic employment prospects in retail trade
The balance on past employment is virtually stable. The one about expected employment has recovered, due to retail trade. In that latter sector, the balance on past workforce stands at its average while the one about expected workforce has returned above it. In trade and repair of motor vehicles, these balances remain at very high levels.
In retail trade, the business climate has improved
In retail trade, the business climate has improved. In June, the composite indicator that measures it has strengthened, to 106. It has remained above its average (100) since May 2017.
However, slightly fewer specialised as non-specialised retailers than in May have indicated a rise in their past sales. Both corresponding balances remain below their mean level.
Nevertheless, more non-specialised retailers than in May have expected a rise in their sales and their orders, each of the two balances standing in June above its average.
Overall, stocks are estimated lower. The corresponding balance has moved closer to its standard level.
The balance on expected prices has slightly fallen and stays below its average.
In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate is practically stable at a very high level
In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate, practically stable, stands at a very high level (118). It has been above its average (100) since January 2015.
The balances concerning recent and expected sales and general business outlook have increased while the one about ordering intentions has fallen back. Each of these four balances remains well above its average.
More managers than in May have estimated that the level of stocks is above its standard level.
The balance on expected prices is almost unchanged and stands at its mean level.
graphiqueChart_3 – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueChart_4 – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
tableauTable_2 – Detailed data
| Ave. (1) | Mar. 18 | Apr. 18 | May 18 | June 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 107 | 105 | 104 | 106 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –29 | –4 | –7 | –8 | –11 |
| Recent sales | –6 | –18 | –20 | –15 | –17 |
| Expected sales | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Ordering intentions | –6 | –4 | –2 | 2 | 3 |
| Stocks | 10 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –6 | –5 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –5 | –6 | –6 | –8 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –14 | –12 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –1 | –2 | –4 | 0 |
| Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –2 | –20 | –20 | –12 | –15 |
| Expected sales | 7 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
| Ordering intentions | 2 | 3 | –1 | 10 | 14 |
| Stocks | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 8 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –3 | –5 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –3 | –1 | 1 | –6 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –8 | –6 | ||
| Specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –12 | –16 | –20 | –17 | –19 |
| Expected sales | –8 | –6 | –1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ordering intentions | –16 | –9 | –4 | –9 | –10 |
| Stocks | 13 | 19 | 13 | 17 | 16 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –10 | –5 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –7 | –11 | –13 | –9 |
| Cash position (2) | –22 | –22 | –18 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 118 | 118 | 117 | 118 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –26 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| Recent sales | –7 | 12 | 16 | 9 | 14 |
| Expected sales | –5 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| Stocks | 15 | 22 | 25 | 16 | 20 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Cash position (2) | –23 | –19 | –13 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –6 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)
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