24 May 2018
2018- n° 135In May 2018, the business climate falters significantly in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - May 2018
According to the managers surveyed in May 2018, the business climate has significantly faltered in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has fallen back by six points compared to March 2018. However, at 104, it remains above its long-term average (100), that it has exceeded since January 2017. Besides, the business climate of March has been raised by one point because of late businesses' answers which have been taken into account.
- The balances of opinion on past activity have substantially slipped back
- Expected activity is estimated less positively
- The balance on expected employment remains well above its average
- Prices more often expected to decrease
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in May 2018, the business climate has significantly faltered in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has fallen back by six points compared to March 2018. However, at 104, it remains above its long-term average (100), that it has exceeded since January 2017. Besides, the business climate of March has been raised by one point because of late businesses' answers which have been taken into account.
graphiqueChart_1 – Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator has moved into the area of unfavourable economic outlook.
graphiqueChart_2 – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The short-term economic uncertainty stands between -0,3 et +0,3.
The balances of opinion on past activity have substantially slipped back
More wholesalers than in March have indicated a decrease in their past sales and their received merchandise, total and for foreign trade. The corresponding balances of opinion have fallen back, but remain above their long-term average, except the one about received merchandise from abroad which has moved below it.
Expected activity is estimated less positively
The three balances about ordering intentions from France or abroad and shipments abroad have declined. The balance on general business outlook has decreased again, more sharply than in March. However, each of these four balances remains above its mean level.
The balance on expected employment remains well above its average
The balance of opinion concerning past workforce has shrunk for the third survey in a row, but stays above its mean level. The balance on expected employment has slightly declined but still stands significantly above its average.
Prices more often expected to decrease
The balance about past selling prices is practically stable, close to its long-term average. The one on expected prices has fallen back, moving below its mean level.
tableauTable_1 – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | Nov. 17 | Jan. 18 | Mar. 18 | May 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 111 | 107 | 110 | 104 |
| General business outlook | –23 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 7 |
| Sales | –14 | –5 | –9 | –3 | –11 |
| export sales | –15 | –9 | –16 | –5 | –9 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –3 | –3 | –1 | –6 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –3 | –7 | –4 | –12 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –1 | –6 | –5 | –7 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –1 | –11 | –4 | –9 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –2 | –8 | –4 | –9 |
| Current stock | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Past workforce | –1 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Cash position | –9 | –2 | –4 | –4 | –5 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| Expecting selling prices | 14 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 6 |
- *: average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In agricultural wholesale sector, the balances of opinion on past activity – sales, exports and imports – have sharply fallen back. Nevertheless, the one about ordering intentions is stable. These four balances stand now below their average, the one on imports having reached its lowest point since May 2006.
Food products and beverages
In the food wholesaling sector, the balances concerning past sales, total and for export, merchandise received from abroad and ordering intentions have slipped back. The balance on the total sales over the last three months has almost moved back to its average. The one about imports is lower than it has been since September 2013.
Household goods
In wholesale trade of household goods, more managers than in March have declared a decrease in their past activity, in France and with foreign countries, as well as a fall in their ordering intentions. The balance about past sales has even moved slightly below its average; the three others remain above.
Capital goods in information and communication
The balance concerning past sales has edged down. Those on exports and ordering intentions have recovered. The three balances stand above their mean level. The one about imports has diminished for the second month in a row and has returned below its average.
Other industrial capital goods
In that type of wholesale trade, the balances concerning past sales, total and exports, have slightly declined. Nevertheless, all the balances remain above their mean level.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, slightly more traders than in March have declared a fall in their past sales in France and abroad, and in their ordering intentions. The balance of opinion is stable concerning merchandise received from abroad. Each of these four balances remains well above its average.
graphiqueChart_3 – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableauTable_2 – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | Nov. 17 | Jan. 18 | Mar. 18 | May 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –17 | –20 | –15 | –26 |
| Export sales | –16 | –9 | –37 | –6 | –17 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –14 | –26 | –15 | –36 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –7 | –16 | –17 | –17 |
| Current stock | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –7 | –15 | –3 | –13 |
| Export sales | –12 | –8 | –18 | –12 | –18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | 2 | –20 | –18 | –28 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –4 | –4 | –2 | –8 |
| Current stock | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –9 | –9 | –6 | –11 |
| Export sales | –11 | –4 | –11 | 4 | –4 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –5 | –4 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –4 | –4 | –1 | –5 |
| Current stock | 12 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –7 | –14 | 1 | –2 |
| Export sales | –13 | –20 | 1 | –13 | –9 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –12 | 6 | –2 | –13 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | 3 | –4 | –7 | –5 |
| Current stock | 8 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | 9 | 8 | 1 | –3 |
| Export sales | –21 | –10 | –10 | –3 | –5 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ordering intentions | –21 | 1 | –2 | –6 | –3 |
| Current stock | 11 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 12 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –17 | 6 | –4 | –4 | –7 |
| Export sales | –19 | –6 | –14 | –6 | –8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –12 | 2 | –2 | –3 | –3 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | 6 | –6 | –1 | –7 |
| Current stock | 6 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
- *: average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
