25 January 2017
2017- n° 21In January 2017, the business climate gets better in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - January 2017
According to the managers surveyed in January 2017, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector is getting better. The composite indicator that measures it has gained four points (to 102) compared to November 2016 (98, revised upwards by 2 points). It has thus returned above its average (100). The turning-point indicator has gone into the area of favourable economic outlook.
- More wholesalers indicate a rise in their past activity
- Favourable general outlook for activity
- Employment balances are above their avarege
- Fewer price falls reported
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in January 2017, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector is getting better. The composite indicator that measures it has gained four points (to 102) compared to November 2016 (98, revised upwards by 2 points). It has thus returned above its average (100). The turning-point indicator has gone into the area of favourable economic outlook.
graphiqueChart_1 – Composite indicator
graphiqueChart_2 – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively −1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between −0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.
More wholesalers indicate a rise in their past activity
More wholesalers than in November have indicated a rise in their past sales and received merchandises, in France as well as abroad. Each of the four balances has progressed and stands, from now on, at its average or nearly.
Favourable general outlook for activity
The balance concerning the general outlook of the sector has continued to improve. It has reached its highest point since the end of 2007, significantly above its average. Concerning their own activity for the next few months, wholesalers practically maintain their anticipations: the balances concerning ordering intentions, ordering from abroad and shipments abroad have barely changed. Both first ones are above their average, the third has almost reached it.
Employment balances are above their avarege
The balance of opinion concerning past workforce has recovered and has reached a five-year high. The one concerning expected workforce is stable above its average.
Fewer price falls reported
For a second time, more wholesalers than in the previous month have declared rises in their past and expected prices. The first of the two balances has reached its long-term average, the second one is still below it.
tableauTable_1 – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | Jul. 16 | Sept. 16 | Nov. 16 | Jan. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 98 | 98 | 102 |
| General outlook | –24 | –11 | –13 | –8 | –4 |
| Sales | –14 | –11 | –19 | –19 | –14 |
| export sales | –15 | –14 | –26 | –19 | –16 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –6 | –15 | –16 | –11 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –6 | –12 | –15 | –9 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –13 | –14 | –15 | –13 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –11 | –9 | –12 | –11 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –9 | –13 | –17 | –16 |
| Current stock | 8 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Past workforce | –1 | 0 | –3 | –2 | 2 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Cash position | –10 | –6 | –6 | –4 | –5 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | –3 | –7 | 1 | 8 |
| Expecting selling prices | 15 | 0 | –3 | 4 | 10 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In this sector, the three balances concerning past activity, in France and abroad, have increased. The one about ordering intentions has fallen back. The four balances are still very low. The balance concerning shipments abroad is lower than it has been since the beginning of the survey (1979).
Food products and beverages
In this sector, more wholesalers than in November have indicated a decline in their past activity. However, the balance concerning exports has picked up while it has decreased again for imports. The one concerning ordering intentions is practically stable above its mean level.
Household goods
In this sector, the balance concerning past activity has risen and gone above its average. Concerning activity with foreign countries, the balance about sales has fallen while the one about merchandises received has increased. For ordering intentions, the balance remains above its average.
Capital goods in information and communication
Slightly more wholesalers of this sector than two months ago have reported a decline in their past sales. Conversely, more of them have noted an increase in their activity abroad and their ordering intentions.
Other industrial capital goods
In this sector, the balances concerning past sales in France and exports are virtually stable below their mean level. The balances concerning imports and ordering intentions have progressed significantly and have gone above their average.
Other specialised wholesale trade
The activity outlook is promising in this sector. The balance concerning past sales has reached its highest level since the mid of 2011, the one about exports since the end of 2007, and those on imports and ordering intentions since May 2011.
graphiqueChart_3 – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableauTable_2 – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | c | Sept. 16 | Nov. 16 | Jan. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –19 | –43 | –40 | –36 |
| Export sales | –15 | –28 | –45 | –39 | –34 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –11 | –34 | –32 | –21 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –28 | –45 | –42 | –46 |
| Current stock | 5 | 14 | –15 | –21 | –12 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –14 | –3 | –14 | –18 |
| Export sales | –12 | –16 | –12 | –14 | –8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –3 | –5 | –11 | –18 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –14 | –7 | –7 | –6 |
| Current stock | 5 | 3 | 2 | –3 | –4 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –13 | –13 | –12 | –3 |
| Export sales | –11 | –6 | –11 | –12 | –18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –5 | –3 | –12 | –7 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –5 | –11 | –11 | –9 |
| Current stock | 12 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 4 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | 0 | –3 | –12 | –14 |
| Export sales | –13 | –10 | –18 | –4 | 0 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –4 | –6 | –11 | 2 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –2 | –6 | –9 | –5 |
| Current stock | 8 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 7 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –17 | –26 | –19 | –18 |
| Export sales | –21 | –21 | –33 | –26 | –27 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –9 | –25 | –14 | –6 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –12 | –17 | –23 | –14 |
| Current stock | 11 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –8 | –30 | –17 | –5 |
| Export sales | –19 | –10 | –44 | –15 | –4 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –4 | –9 | –15 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –15 | –11 | –10 | –7 |
| Current stock | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 7 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
