14 September 2016

2016- n° 237

In August 2016, consumer prices increased by 0.3% over a month and by 0.2% year-on-year Consumer price index - final results - August 2016

In August 2016, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) grew by 0.3% over a month, after a decrease of 0.4% in July. Seasonally adjusted, it fell by 0.1%, after a stability in July. Year-on-year, the CPI rose by 0.2%, as in the two previous months.

This month-on-month drop was largely seasonal: it arose mainly from the seasonal rebound in the manufactured product prices at the end of the summer sales in Metropolitan France and in some tourism-related services. In addition, food prices kept on rising slightly, especially due to fresh foodstuffs. These increases were partially offset by a further decline in petroleum product prices.

Prices of manufactured products picked up after the end of 2016 summer sales. This rebound (+1.4%) was slightly less pronounced than last year (+1.6% in August 2015), after a decline also less significant in July (−2.9% versus −3.1% in July 2015). In particular, the rise in clothing and footwear prices was more limited in August 2016 (+8.7%) than in the previous year (+9.8%). Conversely, prices of other manufactured products increased slightly more this year (+0.4% versus +0.3% in August 2015). This trend was primarily due to a smaller decline in new car prices (−0.1%) compared to August 2015 (−1.9%), a period when some manufacturers had granted significant discounts. Lastly, the prices of health products continued to decrease (−0.2%; −2.7% year-on-year).

As every year, service prices grew slightly in August (+0.1%); year-on-year, they increased by 0.7%, their smallest rise since summer 2010. This month-on-month rise resulted chiefly from tourism-related services, as accomodation services (+5.0%; −0.1% year-on-year) and package holidays (+8.6%; +3.6% year-on-year). In contrast, airfares fell back in August 2016 (−4.8%; −5.8% year-on-year), after a surge in the previous month (+21.7%; −2.7% year-on-year). Moreover, the prices of communication services were stable in August (+2.5% year-on-year).

In August 2016, food prices edged up again (+0.2%; +1.5% year-on-year). Fresh food became more expensive (+0.5%; +10.8% year-on-year). Excluding fresh products, food prices went slightly up (+0.1%), after eight months of stability, as a result of higher meat prices (+0.2%; +0.3% year-on-year). Year-on-year, they barely increased: +0.1%, as in the two previous months.

Energy prices shrank for the second month in a row (−1.6% in August; −3.0% year-on-year), mostly as a result of falling petroleum product prices (−3.2%; −5.0% year-on-year). Furthermore, electricity fares edged down over the month (−0.3%; +1.8% year-on-year). Conversely, town gas and natural gas prices, indexed to the changes in oil prices with a time lag, rose significantly in August (+1.9%; −7.7% year-on-year)

In August 2016, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) was stable after a decrease by 0.1% in July. Year-on-year, it increased by 0.4%, at a slightly slower pace than in the previous month (+0.5%), reaching its lowest level since April 2015. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recovered by 0.3% over one month, as the CPI; year-on-year, it went up by 0.4%, as in the previous month.

Compared to the provisional estimates published on 31 August, the monthly and annual rates of change in the CPI and HICP are unchanged.