24 March 2016
2016- n° 78In March 2016, the business climate is virtually stable in the wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - March 2016
According to the managers surveyed in March 2016, the business climate is practically stable in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has gained one point, standing at 102, slightly above its long term average (100). The turning-point indicator has recovered and is now in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.
- Total wholesale trade
- A recent activity estimated close to average
- Rise in the expected activity abroad
- Status quo of the opinion about workforce
- More wholesalers have reported falls in prices
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
Total wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in March 2016, the business climate is practically stable in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has gained one point, standing at 102, slightly above its long term average (100). The turning-point indicator has recovered and is now in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff_en – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf_en – Indicateur de retournement
- Note: close to 1 (respectively −1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between −0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.
A recent activity estimated close to average
The balance concerning past sales, virtually stable, is close to its average. The one about received merchandise has declined slightly to below its standard level. Concerning activity abroad, the export sales balance has decreased to its average, while the one on merchandise received from abroad has risen a little and has nearly reached its average.
Rise in the expected activity abroad
The general outlook balance has declined again, still remaining above its average. More wholesalers forecast a rise in their foreign exchanges, whether orders or received merchandises. Each of the corresponding balances remain above its long term average.
Status quo of the opinion about workforce
Both balances concerning past and expected workforce are practically unchanged, the first one, below its average, the second one, above.
More wholesalers have reported falls in prices
Once again, more wholesalers than on the previous two-months period have declared falls in their past prices: the corresponding balance dropped to the low level of mid-2009. The balance on expected prices has slightly recovered but remain low too.
tableautab_cgens_en – Total wholesale trade
| MOY* | Sept. 15 | Nov. 15 | Jan. 16 | Mar. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 101 | 101 | 102 |
| General outlook | –25 | –16 | –8 | –12 | –16 |
| Sales | –14 | –15 | –14 | –12 | –13 |
| export sales | –15 | –19 | –12 | –10 | –15 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –11 | –8 | –9 | –11 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –11 | –11 | –12 | –9 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –14 | –14 | –15 | –13 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –12 | –14 | –15 | –7 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –14 | –9 | –17 | –10 |
| Current stock | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –6 | –2 | –4 | –4 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | –1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Cash position | –10 | –6 | –5 | –6 | –5 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | –13 | –10 | –19 | –24 |
| Expecting selling prices | 15 | –9 | –1 | –7 | –3 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source : French business survey in wholesale trade - INSEE
Raw agricultural products and live animals
Agricultural product wholesalers are more pessimistic concerning their past and expected activity. Both balances concerning past sales have declined, in France and abroad. The balance about imports is stable. The one on ordering intentions is virtually stable. These four balances remain inferior to their mean level.
Food products and beverages
More managers in food sector than in February have signaled a decline in their past activity. However, more of them too have indicated a rise in past activity abroad, mainly in imports. Ordering intentions are favourable. The four balances have remain above their average.
Household goods
Slightly more wholesalers of this sector have noted an increase in their past sales and ordering intentions. Both balances were already above their average. However, the balance about exports has significantly slipped back.
Capital goods in information and communication
In this sector, the balances concerning past sales and ordering intentions have improved again. The balances concerning activity abroad have moved in opposite directions: falling for exports, rising for imports. These four balances stand above their average.
Other industrial capital goods
Practically as many wholesalers of industrial capital goods have estimated that past activity and ordering intentions have diminished. The corresponding balances are close to their average. The balance on exports has declined, the one on imports has increased. Both remain above their average.
Other specialised wholesale trade
Slightly more wholesalers of this sector have indicated a fall in their past sales, in France or abroad, and in merchandise received from abroad. The corresponding balances stand below their average from now on. Conversely, the balance on ordering intentions has improved, going above its average again.
graphiquegraph_sect_en – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect_en – Wholesale trade sectors
| MOY* | Sept. 15 | Nov. 15 | Jan. 16 | Mar. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –17 | –16 | –19 | –24 |
| Export sales | –15 | –16 | –40 | –27 | –32 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –17 | –35 | –22 | –22 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –15 | –13 | –17 | –18 |
| Current stock | 6 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 7 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –14 | –9 | –2 | –10 |
| Export sales | –12 | –12 | –13 | –7 | –5 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –1 | –1 | –11 | 0 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –10 | –9 | –9 | –7 |
| Current stock | 5 | –2 | 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –15 | –7 | –7 | –4 |
| Export sales | –11 | –18 | –1 | 2 | –13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –4 | –6 | –4 | –4 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –10 | –10 | –9 | –7 |
| Current stock | 12 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –2 | –8 | 0 | 5 |
| Export sales | –13 | –8 | 0 | 9 | –1 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | 4 | –7 | –11 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –18 | –18 | –9 | –4 |
| Current stock | 8 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –26 | –28 | –18 | –17 |
| Export sales | –21 | –13 | –21 | –12 | –18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –14 | –13 | –11 | –7 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –21 | –18 | –18 | –20 |
| Current stock | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –15 | –11 | –13 | –29 |
| Export sales | –19 | –36 | –7 | –15 | –20 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –23 | –10 | –14 | –20 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –20 | –17 | –24 | –17 |
| Current stock | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in wholesale trade - INSEE
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
