22 May 2015
2015- n° 121In May 2015, the business climate has improved again in the wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - May 2015
According to the managers surveyed in May 2015, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector has improved again. The corresponding composite indicator has increased by four points since March 2015, and has gone over its long-term average. That level had not been reached since mid-2011.
- Total wholesale trade
- A less grim past activity
- More optimistic expectations
- Better past employment, statu quo of the opinion about expected employment
- Prices rising but still very low
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
Total wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in May 2015, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector has improved again. The corresponding composite indicator has increased by four points since March 2015, and has gone over its long-term average. That level had not been reached since mid-2011.
The turning-point indicator has stayed in the favourable area.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff_en – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf_en – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).
A less grim past activity
Fewer wholesalers than in March have declared a fall in their past sales, to France and abroad. This trend is the same for received merchandises, from France or abroad. Each of the four balances has risen and is near its average from now on.
More optimistic expectations
Concerning their expectations, the managers have been more optimistic: each of the balances concerning ordering intentions, ordering from abroad, shipments abroad and general outlook balance has progressed for three surveys in a row and is now over its mean level.
Better past employment, statu quo of the opinion about expected employment
Slightly less wholesalers than on the last survey have declared a fall in their past workforce. Conversely, the expected workforce balance has been steady for nearly one year, close to its average.
Prices rising but still very low
Each of both balances concerning past and expected prices has significantly increased but has still remained under its average.
tableautab_cgens_en – Total wholesale trade
| MOY* | Nov. 14 | Jan. 15 | Mar. 15 | May 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 96 | 95 | 97 | 101 |
| General outlook | –25 | –36 | –30 | –21 | –17 |
| Sales | –14 | –25 | –26 | –23 | –16 |
| export sales | –15 | –17 | –22 | –17 | –13 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –15 | –20 | –16 | –13 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –12 | –14 | –14 | –11 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –19 | –16 | –15 | –13 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –17 | –16 | –15 | –12 |
| Shipments abroad | –16 | –21 | –17 | –12 | –8 |
| Current stock | 8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –7 | –8 | –10 | –7 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | –6 | –6 | –5 | –5 |
| Cash position | –10 | –7 | –8 | –5 | –4 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | –20 | –13 | –10 | –2 |
| Expecting selling prices | 15 | –10 | –8 | 0 | 7 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Raw agricultural products and live animals
According to the wholesalers of this sector, past sales to France and abroad have been deened better, just as ordering intentions. Only the balance concerning merchandise received from abroad has slightly declined. Each of the four balances is above its average.
Food products and beverages
In this sector, much fewer managers than on the last survey have declared a fall of their past activity. Foreign activity, export or import, has been estimed less grim too. The ordering intentions balance is stable over its mean level.
Household goods
In the household good sector, the past sales balance has increased but this increase might not go on, considering the stability in ordering intentions. However, each of both balances is above its average.
Capital goods in information and communication
More wholesalers in this sector have estimed that recent sales and ordering intentions have progressed. Each of both balances has remained above its average. Concerning foreign trade, the managers have been less pessimistic.
Other industrial capital goods
In industrial capital goods sector, fewer wholesalers than in March have noted a decline in their past activity, but the balance has remained low. Their opinion has improved for ordering intentions and the balance has reached its average. Wholesalers have been more optimistic too about exports and imports.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, the past sales balance has remained low for one year. However, wholesalers have been less pessimistic concerning their exports. Ordering intentions have stayed grim, with a balance under its average.
graphiquegraph_sect_en – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect_en – Wholesale trade sectors
| MOY* | Nov. 14 | Jan. 15 | Mar. 15 | May 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –11 | –6 | –1 | –9 | –4 |
| Export sales | –15 | –3 | 14 | –6 | 3 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –12 | 4 | 0 | –3 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –8 | –7 | –5 | –2 |
| Current stock | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | –4 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –15 | –16 | –24 | –25 | –11 |
| Export sales | –12 | –24 | –31 | –27 | –13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –4 | –17 | –20 | –5 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –18 | –12 | –7 | –7 |
| Current stock | 5 | 3 | –1 | –1 | 1 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –21 | –22 | –7 | –3 |
| Export sales | –12 | –17 | –22 | –3 | –13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –4 | –8 | –9 | –8 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –12 | –8 | –11 | –11 |
| Current stock | 12 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 12 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –10 | –13 | –8 | 2 |
| Export sales | –13 | –13 | –29 | –24 | –23 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –9 | –9 | –22 | –12 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –13 | –10 | –2 | 1 |
| Current stock | 8 | –3 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –39 | –34 | –33 | –29 |
| Export sales | –21 | –25 | –33 | –17 | –14 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –17 | –13 | –21 | –18 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –28 | –35 | –33 | –22 |
| Current stock | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 5 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –42 | –41 | –42 | –38 |
| Export sales | –19 | –14 | –25 | –26 | –22 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –22 | –25 | –15 | –20 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –26 | –22 | –24 | –25 |
| Current stock | 6 | 3 | –1 | 9 | 9 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
