23 January 2015
2015- n° 14In January 2015, the business climate has declined in the wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - January 2015
According to the managers surveyed in January 2015, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector has declined. The corresponding composite indicator has decreased by two points since November 2014 (from 96 to 94), still remaining below its long-term average.
- Total wholesale trade
- A grimmer past activity
- Less pessimistic forecasts
- Statu quo of the opinion about employment
- Still very low prices
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
Total wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in January 2015, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector has declined. The corresponding composite indicator has decreased by two points since November 2014 (from 96 to 94), still remaining below its long-term average.
The turning-point indicator has stayed in the favourable area.
A grimmer past activity
Past sales have been declared grimmer than in November, in France and abroad: slightly more wholesalers have indicated a decline in their past sales and received merchandises, as in export sales and merchandises received from abroad. Each of the four balances has remained under its long-term average.
Less pessimistic forecasts
Fewer business leaders than in November expect a decrease in their orders, in France or abroad: each of the three balances concerning ordering intentions, ordering from abroad and shipments abroad has slightly progressed, becoming closer to its average. The general outlook balance has gone on rising and is nearer to its mean level.
Statu quo of the opinion about employment
Nearly as many wholesalers as for the last survey have declared a fall in their workforce, over the last and over the next few months.
Still very low prices
Even if fewer wholesalers have indicated drops in prices on the past and on the future, the balances are still very low.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).
tableautab_cgens – Total wholesale trade
| MOY* | July 14 | Sept. 14 | Nov. 14 | Jan. 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 97 | 91 | 96 | 94 |
| General outlook | –25 | –36 | –45 | –36 | –30 |
| Sales | –14 | –20 | –30 | –25 | –28 |
| export sales | –15 | –18 | –26 | –17 | –24 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –17 | –22 | –15 | –21 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –11 | –15 | –12 | –15 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –17 | –23 | –19 | –17 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –14 | –20 | –17 | –16 |
| Shipments abroad | –16 | –16 | –19 | –21 | –16 |
| Current stock | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –6 | –9 | –7 | –9 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | –6 | –5 | –6 | –6 |
| Cash position | –10 | –8 | –7 | –7 | –8 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | –10 | –22 | –20 | –13 |
| Expecting selling prices | 16 | –4 | –10 | –10 | –6 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - INSEE
Raw agricultural products and live animals
According to the wholesalers of this sector, past sales and ordering intentions have held steady over their average. Export sales have gone on progressing.
Food products and beverages
According to the wholesalers of food and drink sector, the past sales balances have declined in France and abroad. Both balances concerning sales and export sales stand at a very low level. Ordering intentions are less grim and have reached their average.
Household goods
According to the managers of the household good sector, past sales and export sales have declined since the September survey, each of both balances becoming rather low. However, the balance on the merchandises received from abroad has stabilised over their mean level.
Capital goods in information and communication
The wholesalers of this sector have declared a fall in their past activity, in France and abroad. Fewer of them expect a decrease in their orders, the corresponding balance coming back to its average.
Other industrial capital goods
Wholesalers in industrial capital goods have remained pessimistic about their past sales and ordering intentions, less pessimistic for export sales and merchandises received from abroad.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, the past sales balance has regularly declined since the survey of July 2014. Foreign activity has deteriorated too. Fewer whosalers than in November expect a fall in their orders.
graphiquegraph_sect – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect – Secteurs du commerce de gros
| MOY* | July 14 | Sept. 14 | Nov. 14 | Jan. 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –14 | –19 | –6 | –6 |
| Export sales | –15 | –33 | –14 | –3 | 0 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –26 | –14 | –12 | –13 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –18 | –18 | –8 | –7 |
| Current stock | 5 | –2 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –15 | –6 | –27 | –16 | –26 |
| Export sales | –12 | –18 | –32 | –24 | –32 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | 5 | –24 | –4 | –16 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –15 | –14 | –18 | –12 |
| Current stock | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –8 | –19 | –21 | –23 |
| Export sales | –12 | 4 | –9 | –17 | –19 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –9 | –8 | –4 | –3 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –14 | –20 | –12 | –11 |
| Current stock | 12 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –8 | –23 | –10 | –19 |
| Export sales | –13 | –8 | –3 | –13 | –30 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | 1 | –8 | –9 | –9 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –2 | –27 | –13 | –10 |
| Current stock | 8 | 23 | –1 | –3 | 2 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –39 | –43 | –39 | –35 |
| Export sales | –21 | –24 | –38 | –25 | –26 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –19 | –22 | –17 | –15 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –30 | –35 | –28 | –33 |
| Current stock | 12 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –38 | –40 | –42 | –44 |
| Export sales | –19 | –26 | –39 | –14 | –31 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –17 | –12 | –22 | –28 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –17 | –28 | –26 | –23 |
| Current stock | 6 | 7 | 8 | 3 | –1 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - INSEE
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
