Insee Première · June 2023 · n° 1951

53,800 more deaths than expected in 2022: higher excess mortality than in 2020 and 2021

In 2022, significantly more people died that what would have been expected in the absence of a Covid-19 epidemic or other unusual events such as influenza or heatwaves.

Excess mortality, i.e. the excess of observed deaths over those expected, was slightly higher in 2022 (8.7%) than it was in 2021 (6.9%) and 2020 (7.8%). However, the Covid-19 epidemic was less deadly in 2022 than it was in 2021 and 2020, probably thanks to vaccination and herd immunity. According to Santé publique France (the French public health agency), 38,300 people died with Covid-19 in hospitals and long-term care facilities. This number was significantly higher in 2021 (59,100). The number of death certificates mentioning “Covid-19” has been also falling. These figures imply an increase in the number of deaths due to causes other than Covid-19 in 2022. Specifically, France experienced two unusual outbreaks of influenza, due to a late epidemic in March-April and an early one in December, and heat waves in summer caused more deaths in 2022 than in 2021.

Finally, the number of deaths may have increased since 2020 due to indirect effects of the Covid-19 epidemic, such as postponed surgeries, a drop in screening for other diseases, etc. However, these possible channels are yet to be measured. The downward trend in mortality at each age may also have stopped or paused. Similarly, this potential turning point remains to be identified.