Insee Première · May 2022 · n° 1902

Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic: 95,000 more deaths than expected from March 2020 to December 2021

From March 2020 to December 2021, observed deaths were significantly higher than would be expected in the absence of the Covid-19 epidemic. This excess of deaths from all causes (+95,000) was less than the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19, which was estimated at between 130,000 and 146,000. The number of Covid-19-related deaths included the deaths of frail people who would have died even without the epidemic in 2020 or 2021. In addition, some avoided deaths (for example road accidents avoided during containment) reduced the impact of the epidemic. However, from August to December 2021, the gap between observed and expected deaths became larger than Covid-19-related deaths. This could be explained by a decrease in avoided deaths and/or an increase in deaths indirectly related to the epidemic (e.g. due to postponed operations).

Excess mortality, i.e. the excess of observed deaths over those expected, remained high in 2021 (6.3% after 7.5% in 2020). An increase in excess mortality before the age of 75 and a decrease after the age of 85 characterized the year 2021, compared to 2020. The gender gap increased in 2021, as excess mortality stabilised for men (8.6% in 2020 and 8.3% in 2021), while that of women decreased (from 6.4% to 4.3%).