Labour force projections to 2070
The labor force projections aim to estimate the evolution of labor resources in France
by 2070. Furthermore, they are inputs for potential growth scenarios and pensions'
balance studies. Methodologically, this 11th exercise of labor force projections is
in continuity with the projections published in 2011. It is based on the most recent
total population projections, to which are applied activity rates projections of sex
and age classes. For those aged 55 to 69, the projected activity rates are derived
from the Destinie microsimulation model. For the others, these rates are calculated
by extending past trends.
All the assumptions and scenarios used in these labor force projections were validated
in a work group of experts from different organizations.
In the central scenario, the labor force would continue to increase until 2070 but
in at a much slower rate than in the last decades. The number of actives would reach
31.1 million in 2040 and 32.1 million in 2070, an increase of 2.6 million compared
to 2015. The expected slowdown in the trend of the labor force is linked to the aging
of the population: the sharp increase in the number of people aged 70 or over contributes
to the decline in the activity rate of people over 15 despite the activity rate of
those aged 15 to 69 increasing (+3,6 %).