Labour force projections to 2070

Malik Koubi et Anis Marrakchi

The labor force projections aim to estimate the evolution of labor resources in France by 2070. Furthermore, they are inputs for potential growth scenarios and pensions' balance studies. Methodologically, this 11th exercise of labor force projections is in continuity with the projections published in 2011. It is based on the most recent total population projections, to which are applied activity rates projections of sex and age classes. For those aged 55 to 69, the projected activity rates are derived from the Destinie microsimulation model. For the others, these rates are calculated by extending past trends.
All the assumptions and scenarios used in these labor force projections were validated in a work group of experts from different organizations.
In the central scenario, the labor force would continue to increase until 2070 but in at a much slower rate than in the last decades. The number of actives would reach 31.1 million in 2040 and 32.1 million in 2070, an increase of 2.6 million compared to 2015. The expected slowdown in the trend of the labor force is linked to the aging of the population: the sharp increase in the number of people aged 70 or over contributes to the decline in the activity rate of people over 15 despite the activity rate of those aged 15 to 69 increasing (+3,6 %).

Documents de travail
No F1702
Paru le :Paru le09/05/2017
Malik Koubi et Anis Marrakchi
Documents de travail No F1702- May 2017