Projections for 2070 Slower growth in the labour force
According to the central scenario of INSEE's latest projections, the labour force should continue to grow until 2070, albeit at a much slower pace than in recent decades. The number of workers is expected to reach 31.1 million by 2040 and 32.1 million by 2070, an increase of 2.5 million compared with 2015.
These labour force forecasts are based on INSEE's latest population projections and on estimated trends in activity rates, which take into account the pension reforms enacted up to 2014 and their impact on activity in over 55s.
The anticipated slowdown in trend labour force growth is connected with population ageing: The substantial increase in the number of people aged 70 or above partly accounts for the declining activity rate in the 15-plus age group, while the activity rate in the 15 to 64 age group is reportedly rising.
Due to the growth in the elderly population, it is estimated that by 2070 there will be only 1.4 workers for every inactive person over the age of 60, compared with 1.9 in 2015. Predicted variations in net migration and fertility have only a minor impact on the ratio of workers to inactive people over the age of 60, which is expected to be between 1.3 and 1.5 in 2070 whatever the scenario. These variations, like the central scenario, are based on the assumption that retirement legislation will not change in the period up to 2070.
