Population projections to 2070Twice as many people aged 75 and over as in 2013

Nathalie Blanpain et Guillemette Buisson, division Enquêtes et études démographiques, Insee

If recent demographic trends were to continue, France would have 76.5 million inhabitants by 1st January 2070. Compared with 2013, the population would have increased by 10.7 million, mainly people aged 65 or over (+10.4 million). In particular, there would be twice as many people aged 75 or over in 2070 than in 2013 (+7.8 million).

Until 2040, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase substantially, whatever assumptions are applied regarding changes in the fertility rate, migration or life expectancy: by this date, about one in four inhabitants will be aged 65 or over (against 18% in 2013). This considerable increase coincides with the arrival of all the baby-boom generations in this age group. After this, the change is likely to be more moderate: according to hypotheses, 25% to 34% of the population are likely to be over this age in 2070.

The number of inhabitants by 2070 is dependent on various assumptions, especially those related to fertility and migration. The structure of the population by age, however, depends little on assumptions. By 2070 in France it is expected that there will be one person aged 65 or more for every two people aged 20 to 64.

Insee Première
No 1619
Paru le : 03/11/2016