The labour force in metropolitan France in 2030: significant growth in ten regions

Olivier Léon, Pôle Emploi-Population, Insee

Between 2010 and 2030, the labour force is projected to grow significantly in ten regions of metropolitan France (mainland + Corsica), including southern and western regions and the Paris region (Île-de-France). The alternating entries of large and small birth cohorts into the labour market, changes in work-related behaviour, and inter-regional migration-particularly at young ages-account for the divergent projections at regional level. The only possible factors that could modify these expected trends are the different migration scenarios, but they would not alter the regional ranking. Growth gaps between the labour force and the elderly population-which is increasing throughout France-could increase local imbalances between the needs of the population and the labour resources available to meet them. This could generate employment pressures in certain sectors such as personal services. INSEE projects an ageing of the labour force in all regions until the early 2020s. The subsequent entry into the labour market of the large cohorts born in 2000 should reverse the trend.

Insee Première N° 1371
No 1371
Paru le : 04/10/2011