Does raising the retirement age increase older workers' activity? The case of the 2010 french pension reform
We examine the consequences on older workers activity of the 2010 French pension reform that increased the legal age of retirement from 60 to 62 years. Globally, the activity rate of workers affected by the reform is by 19 to 22 percentage points higher than that of workers of the same age but belonging to generations not affected by the reform. This result is consistent with an ex-ante evaluation using the microsimulation model Destinie managed by the Insee. Moreover, microsimulation allows to first quantify and then sweep out possible interactions between the reform on ages and the other ongoing reforms: the increase in the qualifying period for full pension on the one hand and the so-called “long careers” reform on the other hand, which allows people with sufficient years of service to retire earlier than the legal age with full pension. The declining number of pensioners at ages affected by the reform results in a higher employment rate for older workers, but also raises unemployment and, to a lesser extent, inactivity (other than retirement).