The Destinie II biographies: new sample and projection


Destinie is a dynamic microsimulation model whose main purpose is the evaluation of social reforms, in particular regarding retirement and elder care. This paper presents the method used to generate the new sample of this model, the first results and the methodological improvements compared to the previous sample. For its retrospective part, the new sample comes from the “Patrimoine 2009” survey produced by the French Institute of Statistics. Thereafter, the professional and family trajectories are simulated until 2060 according to transition probabilities estimated from other data. Regarding pensions, for example, these trajectories are very important since they influence the retirement age and the pension. The main methodological improvements were made on three aspects of the model: the estimation of transitions' matrix on the labor market, the reconstruction of the family links and the adjustment to macroeconomic targets. The careers were estimated from new data sets adapted to each career phase. The method used for the reconstruction of family links improves the distribution of the number of children per woman. Finally, transition probabilities are adjusted every year in order to meet macroeconomic targets exactly and not only on average.

Documents de travail
No G2014/01
Paru le : 13/02/2014