Local Estimates of Disablement in the 2008 Disabled Person and Healthcare Survey

The household survey on disabled person and healthcare was conducted in two phases in 2007 and 2008. Since it was designed to obtain information concerning the whole national territory, a direct processing of this survey cannot provide estimates concerning smaller areas according to the occasionally insufficient size of regional samples. The administrative decentralization engaged since 1982 therefore generated a need for knowledge in the medical and social area at the geographical level of départments and regions. This study uses a predictive method to estimate the probability to become disabled or dependent using a model of individual behavor. The model interrelates the variable which is measured during the second phase with the responses collected during the first phase to predict the value taken for each individual already surveyed during the phase 1. It is then possible to compute a Horvitz-Thomson reduced variance estimator derived from the whole sample of the first phase which uses the values imputed by the model.