Economic turning point indicator


Dernière mise à jour le :13/10/2016


The turning point indicator attempts to detect, as early as possible, the moment when the industrial trends are reversed. It is a qualitative variable that is not observed directly. The indicator is presented in the form of a curve which plots, for each date, the difference between the probability of the economic trend being positive and the probability of it being negative.

The indicator varies between +1 and -1: a point very close to +1 (or -1 respectively) indicates that activity is in a distinct upturn phase (or distinct downturn phase, respectively). The moments when the indicator is very close to 0 are deemed to be phases of stabilisation, meaning that the rate of growth in activity is returning towards its long-term average and that the signals received are very mixed and do not show any pronounced movement upwards or downwards.

The value of the indicator for the latest month may be revised the following month, and it is therefore advisable to wait for at least two consecutive months before interpreting a large variation as being the signal of a major change in economic trends.