Exits from the labour market in French regions to 2020: the “senior boom” is not the only explanation

Claire Warzee, pôle Emploi-Population, Insee

One-third of persons in employment in 2005 will have left the French labour market for good in 2020. The number of “baby-boom” seniors aged 50-64 to retire from the labour market is rising every year, and the trend is projected to last until 2020. Seniors alone accounted for one-quarter of the working-age population in 2005. Their employment rate is falling sharply and steadily from age 55 on. The phenomenon will have the strongest impact on regions with the highest proportions of seniors in their population. But employment rates among the 50-64s and the share of persons in their 40s in the labour market also influence retirement rates in each region, dampening the effect of seniors’ demographic weight. Throughout metropolitan France, there will be a substantial number of baby-boomer retirements in the education, health/welfare, and government sectors.

Insee Première
No 1255
Paru le : 01/09/2009