Population projection 2005-2050 -Labour force numbers remain steady in an increasingly ageing population

Élise Coudin, Insee

The growth of the labour force is slowing down. According to new trend projections, the labour force will continue to grow at the same rate as the previous years until 2007; the rate of growth will then fall progressively until 2015, with the labour force then remaining at between 28.2 and 28.5 million people. This new profile can be explained by the scaled up total population and the increased economic activity of the elderly brought about by retirement reforms. Nevertheless, due to the growth of the aged population, there will only be 1.4 economically active people for each economically inactive person over 60 years old in 2050, compared to 2.2 in 2005. A different migration balance would have an immediate effect on the labour force, whilst a rise or fall in the fertility rate would not impact until after 2025. However, these variants would have little impact on the proportion of economically active and economically inactive people aged over 60.

Insee Première
No 1092
Paru le : 25/07/2006