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French GDP increased by 0.3% in Q4 and over the year

Quarterly national accounts - First results Q4 2013

In Q4 2013, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a stability in Q3. Over the year, GDP rose by 0.3% after a stagnation in 2012.

Household consumption expenditure accelerated by the end of the year (+0.5% after +0.1%). Furthermore, total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) rose for the first time since the end of 2011 (+0.6% after –0.3%). Thus, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) accelerated significantly and contributed for +0.5 points to GDP after a neutral contribution in Q3. In Q4 2013, exports bounced back (+1.2% after –1.6%) while imports decelerated slightly (+0.5% after +0.8%). Therefore, the foreign trade balance contributed positively to activity anew: +0.2 points after –0.7 points. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed for –0.3 points, after +0.6 points the previous quarter.

Total production was up anew

In Q4, production in goods and services returned to its Q2 level (+0.2% after –0.2%). Output in the manufactured goods was virtually stable (–0.1% after –1.0%): output of coke and refined petroleum industry declined again but production in other manufacturing branchs was on a better trend. At the same time, production in tradable services accelerated (+0.4% after +0.1%) and production in construction recovered (+0.5% after –0.3%). Over the year, total output increased by 0.6%, after a decrease of 0.3% in 2012.

Investment got out of the rut by the end of 2013

After seven consecutive quarters of decline, global GFCF increased in Q4 2013 (+0.6% after –0.3%). The recover of the expenditure on manufactured goods was confirmed (+1.1%, as in Q3), notably in transport equipment. Concerning services, investment in construction (+0.5% after –0.4%) and in tradable services (+0.4% after –1.7%) both contributed to the global GFCF acceleration. However, given the growth rate carried over at the end of Q3, global GFCF declined over the year: –2.1% after –1.2% in 2012.

Goods and services: supply and uses, chain-linked volumes
percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013
GDP 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
Imports 0.1 1.5 0.8 0.5 -0.9 0.8
Households' consumption *expenditure 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.4 0.4
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.7
GFCF -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 -1.2 -2.1
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises -0.9 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 -1.9 -2.3
Households -1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -3.8
General government 0.5 1.0 0.4 1.1 -0.6 1.4
Exports -0.5 2.4 -1.6 1.2 2.5 0.6
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.2
Inventory changes 0.2 0.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.8 0.1
Net foreign trade -0.1 0.2 -0.7 0.2 1.0 -0.1
Sectoral accounts
percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
*NFC: non-financial corporations
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 28,1 28,3 27,7   28,3 0,0
Household purchasing power 0,9 0,5 -0,1   -0,9 0,4
GDP and components: prices indices
percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
*GG: General Government
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013
GDP 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.1
Imports -0.5 -0.8 0.5 -0.5 1.9 -0.8
Cons. Exp. :      
- Households 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9 0.6
- GG* 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.5
Total GFCF 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 0.7
- of which Households 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 2.3 0.0
- of which NFE 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.3 1.0
- of which GG 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 2.2 0.8
Exports -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 1.2 -0.1
Manufactured goods: supply and uses in volume
percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013
Industrie’s production 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.1 -2.8 0.1
- of which value added 0.0 1.1 -0.7 0.3 -2.0 -0.5
Imports 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.5
Intermediate uses 0.1 1.4 -0.3 0.2 -1.8 0.2
Cons. Exp. :      
- of households -0.6 0.4 0.4 1.0 -1.2 -0.1
- of GG 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.2 4.3 5.0
Total GFCF -0.6 -0.3 1.1 1.1 -3.0 -2.0
- of which NFC -0.8 -0.4 1.2 1.2 -3.7 -2.4
- of which GG 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 -0.1
Exports -0.8 3.2 -2.3 1.5 3.0 0.2
Inventory changes (contribution) 1.1 -0.2 1.1 -0.7 -2.5 0.5
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonall adjusted data
*cu: consumption unit
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013 (ovhg)
HDI 1.2 0.4 0.1   0.9 1.0
Household purchasing power 0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.9 0.4
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.8 0.3 -0.3 -1.5 -0.2
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 0.6
Saving rate (level) 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.6 0.0
Financial saving rate (level) 6.6 6.8 6.8   6.2 0.0
Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012
Profit share 28.1 28.3 27.7   28.3
Investment ratio 19.0 18.8 18.9   19.4
Savings ratio 12.4 12.8 11.7   12.8
Self-financing ratio 65.1 67.7 62.0   65.9

Household consumption accelerated

Household consumption expenditure rose by 0.5% in Q4 2013 after +0.1% in Q3. The expenditure in goods increased significantly (+0.8% after 0.0%), driven up particularly by the acceleration of consumption in food products, cars and equipment goods. In addition, heating expenditure decline was slighter than in Q3. However, expenditure in services remained sluggish (+0.2% after +0.1% in Q3). Over the year, household consumption expenditure was up by 0.4%, after –0.4% in 2012.

The foreign trade balance contributed for +0.2 points to GDP

Exportations bounced back in Q4 (+1.2% after –1.6%). The acceleration of the exchanges concerned almost all manufactured goods, particularly sales of transport equipment (+3.4% after –6.8%). In the same time, importations rose again but a little slower (+0.5% after +0.8%), slowing down notably in agricultural goods, transport equipment and oil products. Overall, the foreign trade balance contributed for +0.2 points to GDP in Q4, after –0.7 points the previous quarter. Over the year, exportations increased (+0.6% after +2.5%) a little slower than importations which bounced back (+0.8% after –0.9%). Thus, over the year the foreign trade balance contributed slightly to GDP (–0.1 point after +1.0 point in 2012).

Changes in inventories weighed down GDP growth this quarter

In Q4, changes in inventories accounted for –0.3 points of GDP growth after +0.6 points the previous quarter. In Q4, the negative contribution concerned nearly all the categories of goods except equipment goods. Over the year, it contributed for +0.1 points, after –0.8 points in 2012.

Revisions: activity is slightly upscaled in Q3

In Q1 and Q3 2013, the evolutions of GDP are slightly upscaled (from –0.1% to 0.0%) compared to previous release. These revisions are mainly due to the update of seasonal and working day adjustment.

Informations Rapides

n° 34 - December 30, 1899

Quarterly national accounts - preliminary figures - 4th Quarter 2013

Next issue August 14, 2014 07:30 - 2nd Quarter 2014

For further information

  • Historical data are available on the BDM: G1540, G1548.

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