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In Q3 2013 GDP was slightly down (–0.1% after +0.5%)

Quarterly national accounts - First results Q3 2013

In Q3 2013, GDP in volume terms* was slightly down (–0.1%), after a rebound in Q2 (+0.5%).

Household consumption expenditure decelerated (+0.2% after +0.4%). Furthermore, total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased again (–0.6% after –0.4%). Overall, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) decelerated and had a neutral contribution to GDP after +0.4 point the previous quarter. Exports relapsed (–1.5% after +1.9%) whereas imports remained on a rising trend (+1.0%) after a dynamic second quarter (+1.6%). Hence, the foreign trade balance had a negative accounting contribution to GDP growth: –0.7 point, after a neutral contribution the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed for +0.5 point to GDP growth (after +0.1 point).

Total production relapsed

After a dynamic second quarter (+0.9%), production of goods and services stepped back in Q3 (–0.3%). Production in manufactured goods decreased by 1.0% (after +2.0%) : activity declined in all industries, except transport equipment industry which slowed significantly. Activity was still depressed in construction (–0.5% after –0.6%). Output in tradable services weakened slighly after a rebound in Q2 (–0.1% after +0.7%), in particular in business services. Finally, output in non tradable services improved (+0.2% after +0.7%).

Household consumption decelerated

Household consumption expenditure slowed down in Q3 (+0.2% after +0.4%). In particular, global energy expenses dropped in Q3 (–3.0%) after two dynamic quarters (+2.0% and +2.5%), due to temperatures below their seasonal norms. However, expenditure on food products upturned close to their trend (+0.4% after –1.1%).

GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components
Goods and services: supply and uses, chain-linked volumes
percentage change from previous period, trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2012 2013 (ovhg)
GDP -0.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Imports -1.1 0.1 1.6 1.0 -0.9 0.9
Households' consumption *expenditure 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.4 0.3
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.4 1.6
GFCF -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -1.2 -2.3
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises -0.5 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -1.9 -2.0
Households -1.0 -1.3 -1.7 -0.6 -0.4 -3.7
General government -0.7 -0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -1.2
Exports -0.6 -0.4 1.9 -1.5 2.5 0.1
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.2
Inventory changes -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 -0.8 0.2
Net foreign trade 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 1.0 -0.3
Sectoral accounts
percentage change from previous period, trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
*NFC: non-financial corporations
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2012 2013 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 28.0 28.1 28.2   28.3  
Household purchasing power -0.9 0.9 0.5   -0.9 0.6
GDP and components: prices indices
percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
*GG: General Government
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2012 2013 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.1
Imports 0.1 -0.6 -0.9 0.2 1.9 -0.9
Cons. Exp. :      
- Households 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 1.9 0.6
- GG* 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5
Total GFCF 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.2 1.7 0.6
- of which Households -0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.1 2.3 0.1
- of which NFE 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9
- of which GG 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.3 2.2 0.7
Exports 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 1.2 -0.1
Manufactured goods: supply and uses in volume
percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2012 2013 (ovhg)
Industrie’s production -2.0 0.5 2.0 -1.0 -2.8 0.3
- of which value added -1.6 0.0 1.2 -0.8 -2.0 -0.6
Imports -1.4 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.6
Intermediate uses -1.1 0.1 1.5 -0.4 -1.8 0.2
Cons. Exp. :      
- of households 0.0 -0.9 0.4 0.4 -1.2 -0.5
- of GG 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.4 4.3 4.5
Total GFCF -0.9 -1.0 -0.3 0.9 -3.0 -2.3
- of which NFC -1.1 -1.1 -0.4 0.9 -3.7 -2.8
- of which GG -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.0 -0.1
Exports -1.3 -0.6 2.8 -1.9 3.0 -0.1
Inventory changes (contribution) -1.0 1.1 0.2 0.9 -2.5 0.9
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonall adjusted data
*cu: consumption unit
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2012 2013 (ovhg)
HDI -0.7 1.2 0.4   0.9 1.1
Household purchasing power -0.9 0.9 0.5 -0.9 0.6
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -1.0 0.8 0.3 -1.5 0.1
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.6 0.8 0.5 -0.4 0.7
Saving rate (level) 15.0 15.9 15.9 15.6  
Financial saving rate (level) 5.6 6.6 6.9   6.2  
Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2012
Profit share 28.0 28.1 28.2   28.3
Investment ratio 19.2 19.1 19.0   19.4
Savings ratio 11.9 12.4 12.8   12.8
Self-financing ratio 62.2 65.0 67.6   65.9

Besides, car purchases slowed down but still increased (+1.2% after +2.1%) after falling by –5.5% in Q1. Finally, expenditure in services slowed anew (+0.2% after +0.4%).

Investment weakened again

In the summer, total GFCF stepped back for the seventh consecutive quarter (–0.6% after –0.4%). GFCF in construction declined again (–0.5% after –0.8%). Moreover, investments on services declined more sharply (–1.0% after –0.4%), notably in business services and in information and communication. In contrast, GFCF in manufactured goods renewed with growth (+0.9% after –0.3%). By institutional sectors, expenditures dropped again in non-financial corporations (-0.6% after +0.1%) and in general government (-0.2% after +0.3%); the decline of household GFCF speed down (–0.6% after –1.7%).

Exports were still depressed, imports were still up

In Q3, exports stepped back (–1.5% after +1.9%) ; almost all goods are concerned by the fall. The decline was particularly sharp for refined products and transport equipment. At the same time, imports kept on increasing (+1.0% after +1.6%), accelerating especially for transport equipment and refined products. Overall, foreign trade weighed down GDP evolution : –0.7 point after having a neutral accounting contribution the previous quarter.

Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP evolution

Changes in inventories had a significantly positive contribution to GDP evolution this quarter : +0.5 point, after already +0.1 point the previous quarter. Much of this contribution is imputable to transport equipment (+0.3 point). For these products, changes in inventory compensated partially the effects of the foreign trade (–0.4 point).

Revisions

GDP growth in 2013 Q2 is still estimated at +0.5%. Revisions are of limited size and are mainly imputable to revisions of indicators (especially industrial production index) and to updates of seasonal adjustments.

Informations Rapides

n° 260 - December 30, 1899

Quarterly national accounts - preliminary figures - 3rd Quarter 2013

Next issue August 14, 2014 07:30 - 2nd Quarter 2014

For further information

  • Historical data are available on the BDM: G1540, G1548.

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