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In Q2 2015, French GDP was stable

Quarterly national accounts - First results Q2 2015

In Q2 2015, GDP in volume terms* was stable: 0.0% after +0.7% in Q1 2015.

Household consumption expenditure decelerated sharply (+0.1% after +0.9%) while their total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased again (–1.6% after –1.1%). Non-financial corporations and general government investment also slowed down. Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) decelerated strongly: it contributed for +0.1 points to GDP growth (after +0.6 points in Q1 2015).

Imports slowed (+0.6% after +2.2%) while exports accelerated (+1.7% after 1.3%). All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.3 points after –0.3 points). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively: –0.4 points after +0.3 points in the previous quarter.

Total production was almost stable

In Q2 2015, production in goods and services was almost stable (–0.1% after +0.8%). Output in the manufactured goods decreased strongly (–0.7% after +1.3%), notably in coke and refined petroleum (–9.6% after +6.5%) due to some refineries shutdowns, and in transport equipment (–1.3% after +5.5%). In contrast, production in equipment goods recovered (+2.1% after –2.1%). Production in tradable services kept rising but at a slower rate (+0.3% after +0.8%) and output in construction shrank again (–1.1% after –0.8%).

Households’ consumption decelerated strongly

In Q2 2015, households’ consumption expenditure decelerated strongly (+0.1% after +0.9%). Expenditure on energy-water-waste stepped back (–2.2% after +3.7%), particularly in electricity and gas. Consumption in engineered goods declined (–0.1% after +1.7%), notably in clothing and pharmaceutical expenditure. Otherwise, consumption in services increased moderately (+0.2% after +0.3%).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components
Goods and services:
percentage change from previous period ,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 2015 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.8
Imports 1.8 1.8 2.2 0.6 3.9 5.1
Household consumption *expenditure 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.6 1.5
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.5 1.5
GFCF -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -1.2 -0.8
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.2 2.0 0.9
Households -1.1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -5.3 -3.9
General government -2.4 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 -6.9 -2.2
Exports 1.0 2.8 1.3 1.7 2.4 5.3
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.0
Inventory changes 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.2 -0.1
Net foreign trade -0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.1
Sectoral accounts
percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
*NFC: non-financial corporations
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 2015 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 29.4 29.8 31.1   29.5  
Household purchasing power 0.5 0.0 1.2   1.1 1.5
Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components
percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 2015 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.4 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.7 1.0
Goods 0.8 -0.2 1.5 -0.9 0.1 1.0
Manufactured Industry 0.6 0.2 1.3 -0.7 0.3 1.0
Construction -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -2.2 -2.9
Market services 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.6
Non-market services 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.3 1.1
Household consumption 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.6 1.5
Food products -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.1
Energy 0.7 -1.7 3.7 -2.2 -5.7 1.6
Engineered goods 0.5 0.5 1.7 -0.1 1.9 2.2
Services 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7
GFCF -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -1.2 -0.8
Manufactured goods 0.2 -0.2 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.1
Construction -1.2 -0.7 -1.1 -1.3 -3.4 -3.5
Market services 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.8
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
*cu: consumption unit
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 2015 (ovhg)
HDI 0.4 -0.1 1.1   1.1 1.3
Household purchasing power 0.5 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.5
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.4 -0.1 1.1 0.7 1.3
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.5
Saving rate (level) 15.2 15.0 15.2 15.1  
Financial saving rate (level) 6.2 6.0 6.3   6.0  
Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
level (in percent), WDA-SA data
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014
Profit share 29.4 29.8 31.1   29.5
Investment ratio 23.2 23.0 22.7   23.1
Savings ratio 17.4 18.3 19.2   17.4
Self-financing ratio 75.0 79.9 84.6   75.2
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
level, WDA-SA data
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014
In billions of euros      
Total expenditure 306.9 307.5 309.9   1226.5
Total receipts 285.6 286.3 288.9   1141.7
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -21.4 -21.1 -21.0   -84.9
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -4.0 -3.9 -3.9   -4.0

Households’ investment decreased again, non-financial corporations’ grew very weakly

Total GFCF declined in Q2 2015 (–0.3% after 0.0%). Investment in construction decreased for the eighth consecutive quarter (–1.3% after –1.1%). Excluding construction, GFCF increased (+0.4% after +1.0%). Investment in manufactured goods decelerated (+0.1% after +1.2%). Expenses in market services kept rising (+0.7% after +0.9%). Non-financial corporations’ GFCF slowed down (+0.2% after +0.6%), general government’s declined slightly (–0.1% after +0.2%). The decrease in households’ GFCF worsened (–1.6% after –1.2%).

Exports were in upward trend

In Q2 2015, exports accelerated (+1.7% after +1.3%), especially in transport equipment (+8.2% after +0.1%). Conversely, exports in coke and refined petroleum products stepped back sharply (–7.5% after +13.0%).

At the same time imports decelerated (+0.6% after +2.2%), notably due to a strong decrease in expenditures on unrefined petroleum products and the slowdown in transport equipment (+4.1% after +5.5%). Thus, foreign trade drove activity this quarter (+0.3 points to GDP after –0.3 points).

Changes in inventories weighed down on activity

Changes in inventories accounted for –0.4 points to GDP growth this quarter, after +0.3 points. The negative contribution concerned mostly transport equipment and refined petroleum.

Revisions

In Q2 the growth rate of GDP is slightly upscaled (from +0.6% to +0.7%) compared to the previous release.

Informations Rapides

n° 195 - August 14, 2015

Quarterly national accounts - preliminary figures - 2nd quarter 2015

Next issue November 13, 2015 07:30 - 3rd Quarter 2015

For further information

  • Historical data are available on the BDM: G1540, G1548.

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