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French GDP increased by 0.1% in Q4. Over the year, GDP rose by 0.4%

Quarterly national accounts - First results Q4 2014

In Q4 2014, GDP in volume terms increased by 0.1%. Over the year, GDP rose by 0.4% as in 2013.

Household consumption expenditure increased slightly by the end of the year (+0.2% after +0.3% in Q3 2014). Conversely, total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) still decreased (–0.5% after –0.6%). Thus, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) rose slightly and contributed for +0.1 points to GDP after +0.2 points in Q3. Exports accelerated markedly in Q4 (+2.3% after +0.7%), while imports kept on increasing (+1.7% after +1.3%). Ultimately, foreign trade balance contributed positively to activity: +0.1 points after –0.2 points. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed for –0.2 points, after +0.3 points the previous quarter.

Total production was flat

In Q4, production in goods and services held steady (after +0.5%). Output in the manufactured goods stepped back (–0.2% after +0.5%), notably production of transport equipment. At the same time, production of tradable services decelerated slightly but still increased (+0.4% after +0.6%) whereas activity in construction dropped again (–1.0% after –1.0%). Over the year, total production increased by 0.6%, after +0.5% in 2013: it renewed with growth in manufacturing industries (+0.4% after –0.6%) and accelerated slightly in tradable services (+1.2% after +0.9%), while the decline in construction intensified (–2.9% after –1.2%).

Investment dropped again

As from the beginning of the year, GFCF continued to decline this quarter (–0.5% after –0.6%). Investment in construction fell again, but less strongly in Q4 (–1.1% after –1.4%). Investment in manufactured goods decreased again (–0.3% after –0.1%).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components
Goods and services:
percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013 2014
GDP 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4
Imports 1.0 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.9 3.8
Household consumption *expenditure -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6
General government *consumption expenditure 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 2.0 1.9
GFCF -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.6
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises -0.5 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 0.3
Households -1.7 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -3.1 -5.8
General government -0.3 -1.3 -1.5 -0.2 1.1 -2.1
Exports 0.6 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.4 2.7
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4
Inventory changes 0.3 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3
Net foreign trade -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.4
Sectoral accounts
percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
*NFC: non-financial corporations
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013 2014 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 30.0 29.5 29.6   29.8
Household purchasing power 0.6 0.5 0.6   0.0 1.2
Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components
percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013 2014
Production of branches 0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.6
Goods 0.2 -0.4 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 0.0
Manufactured Industry 0.7 -0.8 0.5 -0.2 -0.6 0.4
Construction -1.3 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -2.9
Market services 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.2
Non-market services 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.5 1.6
Household consumption -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6
Food products -0.9 0.8 -0.3 0.7 0.1 0.4
Energy -4.7 1.8 1.2 -2.3 0.8 -5.7
Engineered goods 0.4 -0.5 0.4 0.6 -1.0 1.7
Services 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7
GFCF -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.6
Manufactured goods -0.2 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 0.3
Construction -1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -1.6 -3.9
Market services -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
*cu: consumption unit
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013 2014 (ovhg)
HDI 1.1 0.5 0.5   0.6 1.6
Household purchasing power 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.5 0.3 0.4 -0.6 0.6
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.3
Saving rate (level) 15.4 15.5 15.8 15.1 0.0
Financial saving rate (level) 6.3 6.6 6.9   5.8 0.0
Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
level (in percent), data WDA-SA
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013
Profit share 30.0 29.5 29.6   29.8
Investment ratio 22.6 22.6 22.6   22.6
Savings ratio 17.1 17.2 17.2   17.1
Self-financing ratio 75.6 75.8 76.2   75.8
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
level, data WDA-SA
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013
In billions of euros      
Total expenditure 307.4 308.3 310.3   1207.7
Total receipts 285.8 284.7 286.3   1120.4
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -21.6 -23.6 -24.0   -87.2
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -4.0 -4.4 -4.5   -4.1

However, investment in tradable services was still growing (+0.4% this quarter after +0.2% in previous quarter). Over the year, GFCF stepped back: –1.6% after –0.8%.

Household consumption decelerated

In Q4 2014, household consumption grew by 0.2%, after +0.3% in Q3. Expenditure in goods decelerated (+0.1% after +0.3%). Total expenditure on energy, in particular gas and electricity, declined sharply (–2.3%) due to temperatures above their seasonal average. Conversely, consumption in food products bounced back (+0.7% after –0.3%) and household expenditure in capital goods were still dynamic (+2.9% after +3.0%). As for services, expenditure accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.2%). Over the year, household consumption expenditure accelerated (+0.6% after +0.3%). In 2014, consumption expenditure of general government progressed at a rate close to 2013 (+1.9% after +2.0% in 2013).

Foreign trade balance contributed anew to growth

In Q4, exportations accelerated markedly (+2.3% after +0.7%), especially in transport equipment (+10.7% after –5.0%). In the same time, importations were also more dynamic compared to the previous quarter (+1.7% after +1.3%), mainly due to importations of pharmaceuticals. Overall, the foreign trade balance contributed for +0.1 points this quarter after –0.2 points the previous quarter. Over the year, exportations increased (+2.7% after +2.4%), but less than importations (+3.8% after +1.9%). In 2014, the foreign trade balance weighed down GDP growth (–0.4 points after +0.1 points in 2013).

Changes in inventories weighed down GDP growth at the end of 2014

In Q4, changes in inventories accounted for –0.2 points of GDP growth after +0.3 points. In particular, the negative contribution concerned the transport equipment, in automotive as in aeronautics. Over the year, changes in inventories contributed up to +0.3 points, after –0.2 points in 2013.

Revisions

GDP growth in Q3 2014 is still estimated at +0.3%. Mild revisions are mainly imputable to revisions of indicators and to updates of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Informations Rapides

n° 30 - February 13, 2015

Quarterly national accounts - preliminary figures - 4th Quarter 2014

Next issue May 13, 2015 07:30 - 1st quarter 2015

For further information

  • Historical data are available on the BDM: G1540, G1548.

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