In October 2011, households’ confidence about the economic situation improved: the synthetic confidence index gained 2 points compared with September; After a sharp decrease this summer (–5 points between July and September), it remains below its long-term average.
In October, households appreciation of their past and future financial situation increased: both corresponding balances gained 2 points. Households are also more numerous than in September to consider it opportune to make major purchases (+3 points). These three balances remain below their long-term averages.
Households’ opinion about their current saving capacity increased in October (+3 points). Their appreciation of their savings capacity in the next 12 months also improved : the corresponding balance gained 4 points, standing at its long-term average.
Moreover, households considered it more opportune than in September to save: after the sharp decrease of this summer (–8 points between July and September), the corresponding balance of opinion increased by 8 points.
Consumer synthetic index
|Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted, in points|
|(1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2010|
|(2) This indicator is normalized in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2010).|
|Synthetic index (2)||100||85||83||80||82|
|Financial sit., past 12 m.||–17||–28||–28||–29||–27|
|Financial sit., next 12 m.||–2||–19||–22||–25||–23|
|Current saving capacity||11||20||18||16||19|
|Expected saving capacity||–9||–12||–13||–13||–9|
|Savings intentions, next 12 m.||20||24||20||16||18|
|Major purchases intentions, next 12 m.||–13||–21||–23||–25||–22|
|General economic sit., past 12 m.||–40||–67||–71||–76||–75|
|General economic sit., next 12 m.||–21||–45||–52||–59||–55|
|Unemployment, next 12 m.||33||47||56||70||58|
|Consumer prices, past 12 m.||–19||21||19||16||13|
|Consumer prices, next 12 m.||–35||–19||–19||–19||–21|
Households were less pessimistic about the expected general economic situation in France. After having lost 14 points between July and September, the corresponding balance of opinion gained 4 points in October. After having declined too during the summer (–9 points), households’ opinion about the past general economic situation was almost stable (+1 point). Both balances of opinion remain clearly below their long-term average.
In October, households were far less numerous than in July to forecast an increase in unemployment. This balance of opinion decreased by 12 points in October, after its sharp increase during the summer (+23 points between July and September).
Households perceived a declining inflation: the corresponding balance lost 3 points in October, prolonging the decline that began in April. Their opinion about expected inflation declined too (–2 points).
Balances on personnal financial situation and general economic situation
Households' unemployment expectations
Households' perception of prices
n° 262 - October 25, 2011
Monthly consumer confidence survey - October 2011
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