This month, the layout of the consumer survey changes. A new synthetic index of “households’ confidence” is introduced, replacing the former summary indicator. It is calculated with a method identical to the one for business surveys (factor analysis). This new index is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period 1987-2010, i.e. since the survey in monthly. Its variations are rather close to the former indicator. Moreover, opinion balances have been reconstructed from the survey run every four month since the early seventies before this monthly one.
In January 2011, household’s confidence about the economic situation is almost stable: the synthetic confidence index loses 1 point with respect to December. It remains lower than its long term average.
In January, households appreciation of their financial situation (past or future) slightly deteriorates, the corresponding balances lose 1 and 2 points respectively. Households’ opinion on the timeliness to make major purchases also loses 2 points.
Households’ opinion about their current saving capacity is stable and remains above its long term value.
Households appreciation of their savings capacity in the next 12 months is also stable, close to its long term average.
The opinion on the timeliness for savings loses 1 point but remains close to its long term average.
Consumer synthetic index
|Balance of responses, seasonally ajusted|
|(1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2010|
|(2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2010).|
|Synthetic index (2)||100||87||89||86||85|
|Financial sit., past 12 m.||–17||–25||–21||–24||–25|
|Financial sit., next 12 m.||–2||–17||–13||–19||–21|
|Current saving capacity||11||16||18||15||15|
|Expected saving capacity||–9||–9||–11||–10||–10|
|Savings intentions, next 12 m.||20||30||25||23||22|
|Major purchases intentions, next 12 m.||–13||–19||–20||–21||–23|
|General economic sit., past 12 m.||–40||–65||–65||–70||–71|
|General economic sit., next 12 m.||–21||–44||–44||–47||–49|
|Unemployment, next 12 m.||33||43||45||44||46|
|Consumer prices, past 12 m.||–19||–12||–9||–3||7|
|Consumer prices, next 12 m.||–35||–25||–22||–19||–16|
Households are faintly more wary about the general economic situation in France (past and future), the corresponding balances step back by 1 and 2 points respectively.
In January, households are more numerous than in December to forecast an increase in unemployment, the corresponding balance gains 2 points. This balance of opinion is now stable since last fall, notably above its long term value.
In January, households report that past inflation has sharply increased (+10 points). Moreover, the expected inflation balance of opinion also increases (+3 points).
Balances on personnal financial situation and general economic situation
Households' unemployment expectations
Households' perception of prices
n° 28 - January 27, 2011
Monthly consumer confidence survey - january 2011
Next issue September 26, 2014 08:45 - September 2014
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