Go to contents

Go to main menu

Liens transversaux haut

In January 2016, the business climate in manufacturing is stable above its long-term average

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2016, the business climate in industry is stable for the second month in a row. The composite indicator remains at a level (102) above it long-term average (100).

Business climate in industry - Composite indicator

Business climate in industry - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator has increased and is now in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator

In January 2016, the balance of opinion on past activity, already below its long-term mean, has declined somewhat more (-2 points). That on personal production expectations is virtually stable above the normal.

Industrialists are slightly more optimistic than in December on general production expectations of the sector (+2 points). This balance is significantly above its long-term average.

In January, order books are stable on the whole, but export ones have slightly deteriorated; the corresponding balances of opinion remain above their long-term mean.

Finally, less industrialists than in December judge that stocks of finished products are above normal, the corresponding balance has decreased by 5 points and is inferior to its long-term average.

Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity
Balance of opinion, in %
* Long-term average since 1976.
Source: Monthly business survey – INSEE
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Oct. 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15 Jan. 16
Composite indicator 100 103 102 102 102
Past activity 4 8 10 1 –1
Finished-goods inventory 13 10 11 12 7
Global order books –18 –15 –17 –11 –11
Export order books –14 –13 –14 –10 –12
Personal production expectations 5 12 2 9 10
General production expectations –9 2 9 0 2

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has bounced back in January 2016 and has become higher than its long-period average. That on production prospects has picked up and is now above its mean level. Global order books are virtually stable, even if export order books have slightly worsened; the corresponding balances stay above normal. Stocks of finished products are judged lower and the corresponding balance has become inferior to normal.

MACHINENERY AND EQUIPMENT GOODS

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the balance on past activity has increased again and has reached its long-term average. That on production expectations has rebounded and has returned to its level of November, above the normal. The balance on stocks of finished products is stable for the third month in a row, close to its mean level. Global and export order books have improved and are close to their normal level.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity has plummeted but remains above its long-term average. That on production prospects has picked up and has become significantly higher than its mean level. Global and export order books, slightly less filled, remain above their mean. Stocks of finished goods are considered higher, the corresponding balance is now close to its long-term average.

Man. of other transport equipment

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balances on past activity and on production prospects have dipped but remains above their long-term average. Stocks of finished products are considered to be lower, the corresponding balance has returned under its long-term level. Global order books have advanced above their long-term average.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

In “other manufacturing”, the balance of opinion on past activity has slightly decreased, remains above normal; that on production prospects has fallen back and has returned below its long-term mean. On a sub-sector level, the balance on past activity has plummeted in pharmaceuticals, has deteriorated in chemicals and in basic metals and has virtually stabilised in plastic products. The balance on expected activity has worsened in the manufacture of chemicals and in that of basic metals while it has improved in that of pharmaceuticals and in that of plastic products. Global order books are virtually stable in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals and have lowered in that of chemicals and in that of basic metals; in plastic products, while global order books have improved a little, export order books have declined. Finally, stocks of finished goods are considered higher in the manufacture of chemicals, virtually stable in that of pharmaceuticals and in that of plastic products and lower in that of basic metals.

Revisions

The business climate has been lowered by one point in December 2015. This slight revision comes from late answers from businesses that have been taken into account.

Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
Balance of opinion, in %
* NA: aggregated classification, based on the NAF rév.2.
** Long-term average since 1976.
Source: INSEE - Monthly business survey
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** Nov. 15 Dec. 15 Jan. 16
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 7 1 10
Finished-goods inventory 12 13 18 10
Global order books –18 –11 –12 –11
Export order books –13 –3 –9 –11
Personal production expectations 7 4 5 11
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods
Past activity 4 –5 –1 4
Finished-goods inventory 17 19 19 19
Global order books –24 –23 –26 –21
Export order books –22 –23 –27 –24
Personal production expectations 2 6 –5 6
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 36 35 14
Finished-goods inventory 14 27 23 10
Global order books –13 11 15 14
Export order books –12 –2 –1 –1
Personal production expectations 8 41 15 37
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 4 42 46 15
Finished-goods inventory 10 8 –1 11
Global order books –20 –3 9 5
Export order books –13 –9 10 3
Personal production expectations 4 42 –9 50
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 20 22 17
Finished-goods inventory 21 47 48 9
Global order books –5 26 20 23
Export order books –10 3 –9 –5
Personal production expectations 15 45 30 27
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 4 5 3
Finished-goods inventory 10 2 7 6
Global order books –20 –26 –20 –22
Export order books –13 –18 –8 –12
Personal production expectations 4 1 5 0
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 5 7 18 9
Finished-goods inventory 6 –2 –3 5
Global order books –13 –23 –10 –17
Export order books –8 –20 –3 –10
Personal production expectations 13 –2 10 4
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 16 33 25 –28
Finished-goods inventory 9 5 6 6
Global order books 3 –3 –2 –3
Export order books 10 1 3 –1
Personal production expectations 14 –25 –35 –15
Man. of rubber and plastic products [CG]
Past activity –3 –3 6 4
Finished-goods inventory 11 7 12 14
Global order books –26 –41 –40 –35
Export order books –18 –32 –13 –24
Personal production expectations –1 9 –6 –3
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity 0 7 0 –13
Finished-goods inventory 7 0 13 4
Global order books –20 –34 –23 –29
Export order books –15 –25 –18 –17
Personal production expectations 1 –3 13 8

Informations Rapides

n° 14 - January 21, 2016

Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2016

Next issue October 25, 2016 08:45 - October 2016

For further information