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In February 2014, the business climate in manufacturing industry is stable

Manufacturing industry

According to the business managers surveyed in February 2014, the business climate in industry has not changed compared to the previous month. The composite indicator is stable and stands at its long-term average.

Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator

Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator has weakened compared to January and is now in the neutral zone.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator

The balance of opinion on past change in production has improved and has reached its long-term average. The balance of opinion on personal production expectation remains good-biased: it is nearly stable and stands now above its long-term average.

Global and export order books have sligthly weakened compared to the previous month. Both the balances on levels of the global and foreign demand are bellow their long-term averages.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, is nearly stable and keeps standing at a level above its long-term average.

Finally, stocks of finished products have slightly gone up but theirs levels are considered as still below their normal level.

Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
Balance of opinion, in %
(1) Average since 1976.
(2) This indicator is standardized with a mean equal to 100 and a standard-deviation equal to 10.
Source : Monthly business survey - Insee
Manufacturing industry Aver. (1) Nov. 13 Dec. 13 Jan. 14 Feb. 14
Composite indicator (2) 100 98 100 100 100
Past activity 4 9 11 –1 6
Finished-goods inventory 13 13 9 5 8
Global order books –18 –23 –21 –19 –21
Export order books –14 –21 –20 –17 –21
Personal production expectations 5 1 4 10 9
General production expectations –9 –17 –11 –4 –6

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has slightly decreased but its level remains markedly above its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have gone down but are considered still below their normal level. While global order books are considered as normal, the level of export order books has deteriorated and are considered as low. The balance on expected activity is stable and remains below its long-term level.

ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT; MACHINE EQUIPMENT

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment, machine equipment, industrialists consider that their past activity is deteriorated : the corresponding balance is still below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have gone down again. In spite of an improvement of the balances, the industrialists of this sector consider that their order books are still low. In contrast, they are less pessimistic about their production expectations.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance of opinion on past activity has sharply decreased compared to January and stands anew above its average level. Likewise, the balance of opinion on the expected production has gone down but still remains above its long-term average. While global order books remain low as January, export order books have strongly deteriorated and are now considered as unusually low. The finished-goods inventory level has gone up and is considered as close to the normal level.

Man. of other transport equipment

In February, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance of opinion on past activity has clearly increased and stands at a level above its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have increased sharply and are considered very high. Global and foreign order books are described as high. According to the industrialists from this area, activity is likely to be very dynamic again over the next months.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

According to business managers, the past activity keeps improving in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products, has recovered in the manufactures of chemicals, keeps deteriorating in the manufacture of basic metalls and stays weak in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products. The production expectations over the next months remain good-biased in the manufacture of pharmaceuticaland have improved markedly in the both other sectors . The levels of global and export order books are still described as low in all sectors : all balances are bellow their average levels. Finally, the finished-goods inventory is nearly stable in the manufacture of pharmaceutical and has gone down in the three other sectors. Inventories are considered close to normal in all sectors.

Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
Balance of opinion, in %
* NA: aggregated manufacture, based on the NAF rιv.2. The describe
of the NA is available in the web-page of this indicator.
** Long-term average.
Source : Monthly business survey - Insee
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** Dec. 13 Jan. 14 Feb. 14
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 19 16 13
Finished-goods inventory 12 8 4 7
Global order books –18 –18 –14 –18
Export order books –13 –18 –15 –17
Personal production expectations 7 0 0 1
(C3) Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment
Past activity 5 –12 –6 –8
Finished-goods inventory 17 34 19 14
Global order books –23 –36 –35 –32
Export order books –21 –40 –45 –34
Personal production expectations 3 –13 –13 –1
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 7 18 9 –4
Finished-goods inventory 14 11 8 27
Global order books –14 –20 –15 –16
Export order books –12 –17 0 –23
Personal production expectations 7 19 41 17
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 2 27 33 –10
Finished-goods inventory 10 –23 2 8
Global order books –20 –46 –44 –46
Export order books –14 –14 13 –42
Personal production expectations 2 51 54 13
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 13 9 20
Finished-goods inventory 20 45 13 47
Global order books –6 6 13 13
Export order books –9 –21 –12 –5
Personal production expectations 14 8 33 35
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 10 3 8
Finished-goods inventory 11 4 4 2
Global order books –20 –25 –24 –26
Export order books –13 –17 –15 –16
Personal production expectations 4 1 6 9
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 6 8 4 16
Finished-goods inventory 7 –1 0 –3
Global order books –13 –21 –16 –20
Export order books –8 –20 –8 –11
Personal production expectations 14 19 8 17
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 17 47 –40 –39
Finished-goods inventory 9 7 –2 –3
Global order books 3 –4 –7 –5
Export order books 10 –7 –8 –7
Personal production expectations 15 –29 53 51
Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG]
Past activity –2 –7 1 15
Finished-goods inventory 11 6 5 2
Global order books –24 –39 –38 –38
Export order books –18 –30 –32 –26
Personal production expectations –1 –7 –18 9
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity –1 16 11 7
Finished-goods inventory 7 10 10 5
Global order books –20 –25 –25 –36
Export order books –16 –8 –14 –25
Personal production expectations 1 6 7 –13

Informations Rapides

n° 40 - February 25, 2014

Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - February 2014

Next issue September 23, 2014 08:45 - September 2014

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